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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Ashburton weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 25° in Ashburton today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 27°, with a 15% chance of rain.

25°14°
27°14°
16°
17°
21°
26°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Clear
Feels 12° · Wind 17 km/h · Humidity 55%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Clear
Feels 11° · Wind 20 km/h · Humidity 68%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Clear
Feels 13° · Wind 12 km/h · Humidity 47%

Latest for Ashburton: European (ECMWF): 15° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 14° Clear · German (DWD ICON): 16° Clear.

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Ashburton weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ashburton swings 19°C across the year, from 25°C highs in January to 6°C lows in June, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 953 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
25°C average high
Coldest month
June
6°C average low
Wettest month
April
953 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and May
Residents
7,952
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Ashburton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ashburton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ashburton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
25° 14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
27° 14°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
16°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
17°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
21°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
26° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
28° 18°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
28° 16°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
28° 13°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
26° 18°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
17° 10°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
20° 11°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
24° 13°
±6°

Ashburton, Victoria is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 6°C), with roughly 953 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Ashburton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Ashburton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
25°
14°
Feb
25°
14°
Mar
24°
13°
Apr
18°
10°
May
16°
Jun
13°
Jul
13°
Aug
16°
Sep
18°
Oct
19°
Nov
22°
12°
Dec
25°
13°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ashburton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
81
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C97±1.4 km/t5877% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
75
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C97±1.7 km/t4771% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
74
/100rank #3
85±0.9°C94±3.1 km/t4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°25° to 26°±34%0% to 34% chance
Tomorrow±2°26° to 28°±15%0% to 15% chance
Mon±1°16° to 16°±20%23% to 43% chance
Tue±2°16° to 18°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±2°20° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ashburton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:14
Sunset
18:13
Daylight
11h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ashburton today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Ashburton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ashburton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Ashburton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ashburton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ashburton (CheckWeather Score 81/100), ahead of the German at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ashburton?
January is typically the warmest month in Ashburton, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Ashburton get?
The coldest month in Ashburton is June, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Ashburton get?
Ashburton sees roughly 953 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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