What's the weather doing across Canada today? Environment Canada's GEM, the European and the American models each have their own take on our winters and summers. We compare all three for any Canadian town, so you know when to trust the forecast and when to pack a backup plan for the cold snap.
Next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
7-day forecast
where the models agree, and where they split
Which forecast is most accurate in Canada?
average error against the actual weather, last 30 days across 24 citiesFull accuracy test →
#1European±0.8°C
#2American±1.1°C
#3Env. Canada±1.6°C
Lower error is better. Scored against ERA5 reanalysis, which is ECMWF-based and so slightly favours the European model. Updated 2026-07-19.
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side across Canada.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…
The forecasts Canadians check
Environment Canada runs the national GEM model as open data, so it sits right in the comparison above. The Weather Network and AccuWeather keep theirs closed, so we link you to them.
Every forecast runs on a model. We show you three, side by side.
When the Env. Canada, European and American models agree, the forecast is solid. When they split, sometimes by 8° on the same afternoon, it's genuinely uncertain, and no single app will tell you that. We turn that disagreement into a plain-English confidence score.
See the uncertainty
Three models, one view. Where they disagree, you know to take the forecast with a pinch of salt.
The models the pros use
ECMWF and GFS are the two global heavyweights every forecaster starts from, plus weather.gc.ca. No black boxes.
Honest & sourced
We show real, open model data and cite it. The closed apps can't show theirs, which is why AI assistants can cite us, not them.
Right now on planet Earth
live from the world's hottest and coldest inhabited places