Honest, sourced explainers on how forecasting actually works, and how to read the disagreement between models.
Two global supercomputer models drive most of the world's forecasts. Here is how the European ECMWF and the American GFS actually differ, and why neither one is always right.
Read guideBeyond the global giants, each country runs its own official weather model tuned to its own skies. Here is what the USA, UK, Canada and Australia use, and who runs them.
Read guideIf two apps show different temperatures for the same place on the same day, neither is necessarily lying. They are usually just reading from different weather models. Here is what that means.
Read guideYour app happily shows you a temperature for 14 days from now. Here is the honest answer to how much of that you can believe, and why the number gets shakier the further out you look.
Read guideA moderate El Nino is already underway and forecasters give it a strong chance of reaching Super El Nino strength by early 2027. Here is the honest picture, and why it makes seasonal outlooks harder to call.
Read guideApple Weather does not make its own forecast. It blends other people's models and shows you one number. That single fact explains almost everything about when it is right and when it lets you down.
Read guideThe popular apps mostly resurface the same public forecast models. The better question isn't which app to download, but which model verifies best where you live.
Read guideForecasts are better than their reputation and far from magic. Accuracy depends on how far ahead you look, and model agreement is your confidence meter.
Read guideA no-jargon tour of how a modern forecast is built, from weather balloons to supercomputers, and why comparing models is the smartest way to read one.
Read guideRadar is the best tool for the next hour and a terrible tool for next Tuesday. Here is how to read it, what the colors mean, and where it quietly lies to you.
Read guideThe two opposite phases of the tropical Pacific's ENSO pattern, what they tend to do to global weather, and why they are seasonal odds and not daily forecasts.
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