London

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Will it rain today? Ask three forecasts and you can get three different answers. The Met Office, the European model and the American model each read the British weather their own way. We put all three side by side for every town in the UK, so you can see where they agree and where a shower is genuinely up in the air.

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

7-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split

Which forecast is most accurate in United Kingdom?

average error against the actual weather, last 30 days across 24 citiesFull accuracy test →
#1European±0.8°C
#2Met Office±0.8°C
#3American±0.9°C
Lower error is better. Scored against ERA5 reanalysis, which is ECMWF-based and so slightly favours the European model. Updated 2026-07-19.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side across United Kingdom.Live rain radar →
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The forecasts Britons check

The Met Office runs Britain's own open model, so its data sits right in the comparison above. BBC Weather and AccuWeather keep theirs closed, so we link you to them. Good news: BBC is moving back to the Met Office model, so it'll join the comparison too.

Every forecast runs on a model. We show you three, side by side.

When the Met Office, European and American models agree, the forecast is solid. When they split, sometimes by 8° on the same afternoon, it's genuinely uncertain, and no single app will tell you that. We turn that disagreement into a plain-English confidence score.

See the uncertainty

Three models, one view. Where they disagree, you know to take the forecast with a pinch of salt.

The models the pros use

ECMWF and GFS are the two global heavyweights every forecaster starts from, plus Met Office. No black boxes.

Honest & sourced

We show real, open model data and cite it. The closed apps can't show theirs, which is why AI assistants can cite us, not them.

Right now on planet Earth

live from the world's hottest and coldest inhabited places

Weather in top UK cities

Weather guides

checkweather.io, an independent United Kingdom weather comparison. We aggregate open forecast models via Open-Meteo and show where they agree and disagree. Not affiliated with Met Office, BBC Weather or AccuWeather. Official warnings: Met Office. °C · mph · mb.