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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Geraldton weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 21° in Geraldton today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 22°, with a 3% chance of rain.

21°15°
22°13°
23°11°
22°14°
22°13°
22°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Partly cloudy
Today 21°·Low 16°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Cloudy
Today 20°·Low 14°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
21°
Cloudy
Today 21°·Low 15°·Rain 3%
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Geraldton weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Geraldton swings 23°C across the year, from 34°C highs in February to 11°C lows in July, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 380 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
34°C average high
Coldest month
July
11°C average low
Wettest month
June
380 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
May, July, August and September
Residents
39,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Geraldton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Geraldton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Geraldton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
21° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
22° 13°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
23° 11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
22° 14°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
22° 13°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
22° 13°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
20° 12°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
20° 10°
±3°
Sun
Partly cloudy
20°
models agree
Mon
Clear
22°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
21° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
23° 11°
models agree
Thu
Clear
22° 12°
models agree
Fri
Clear
26° 13°
±7°

Geraldton, Western Australia is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 34°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 11°C), with roughly 380 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Geraldton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Geraldton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
31°
21°
Feb
34°
22°
Mar
30°
20°
Apr
28°
18°
May
26°
16°
Jun
20°
12°
Jul
19°
11°
Aug
21°
12°
Sep
23°
14°
Oct
26°
15°
Nov
28°
18°
Dec
30°
20°

Which forecast is most accurate in Geraldton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C96±1.9 km/t8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
90
/100rank #2
92±0.4°C88±6.2 km/t8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
84
/100rank #3
83±1.0°C97±1.7 km/t7687% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 21°±14%0% to 14% chance
Tomorrow±2°21° to 23°±3%0% to 3% chance
Mon±1°23° to 24°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°21° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±2°21° to 22°±3%0% to 3% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Geraldton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:14
Sunset
18:15
Daylight
12h 1m

Common questions

What's the weather in Geraldton today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Geraldton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Geraldton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Geraldton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Geraldton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Geraldton (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Geraldton?
February is typically the warmest month in Geraldton, with average highs around 34°C.
How cold does Geraldton get?
The coldest month in Geraldton is July, when overnight lows average about 11°C.
How much rain does Geraldton get?
Geraldton sees roughly 380 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More AU weather