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CheckWeather CAConception Bay South
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Conception Bay South weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 13° in Conception Bay South today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 11°, with a 38% chance of rain.

13°
11°
14°
13°
13°
17°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
10°
Overcast
Feels 1° · Wind 48 km/h · Humidity 68%
EuropeanECMWF
11°
Light drizzle
Feels 3° · Wind 45 km/h · Humidity 67%
AmericanNOAA GFS
Light drizzle
Feels -1° · Wind 54 km/h · Humidity 80%

Latest for Conception Bay South: Env. Canada (GEM model): 10° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 11° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 8° Light drizzle.

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Conception Bay South weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Conception Bay South swings 25°C across the year, from 19°C highs in July to -6°C lows in February, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1481 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 5 days a year at 25°C or above, 123 frost nights, and rain on 163 days.

Warmest month
July
19°C average high
Coldest month
February
-6°C average low
Wettest month
November
1481 mm a year
Comfortable
3 months
July, August and September
Residents
27,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
5 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
123 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
163 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Conception Bay South’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Conception Bay South and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Conception Bay South hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Conception Bay South 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
11°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Tue
Showers
13°
±3°
Wed
Mostly clear
13°
models agree
Thu
Clear
17°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
15° 10°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
14°
±7°
Sun
Partly cloudy
16°
±3°
Mon
Rain
17°
models agree
Tue
Rain
18° 12°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
15° 11°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
15° 12°
±4°
Fri
Heavy drizzle
15° 13°
±6°

Conception Bay South, Newfoundland and Labrador is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -6°C), with roughly 1481 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Conception Bay South right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Conception Bay South climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
Feb
-6°
Mar
-3°
Apr
May
Jun
14°
Jul
19°
14°
Aug
19°
15°
Sep
17°
13°
Oct
12°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Conception Bay South?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C98±1.2 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
74
/100rank #2
60±2.2°C95±2.5 km/t7687% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
74
/100rank #3
63±2.1°C96±2.2 km/t7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree13° to 14°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°11° to 11°±22%16% to 38% chance
Mon±1°14° to 15°±42%48% to 90% chance
Tue±3°11° to 14°±30%65% to 95% chance
Wed±1°13° to 13°±12%13% to 25% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Conception Bay South

today, local time
Sunrise
06:44
Sunset
19:05
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Conception Bay South today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Conception Bay South today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Conception Bay South today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Conception Bay South and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Conception Bay South?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Conception Bay South (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Conception Bay South?
July is typically the warmest month in Conception Bay South, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Conception Bay South get?
The coldest month in Conception Bay South is February, when overnight lows average about -6°C.
How much rain does Conception Bay South get?
Conception Bay South sees roughly 1481 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather