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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Ponoka weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 21° in Ponoka today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 22°, with a 1% chance of rain.

21°
22°
24°
26°
19°
22°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±3°Mondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
Env. CanadaGEM model
21°
Clear
Today 21°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Clear
Today 21°·Low ·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Clear
Today 20°·Low ·Rain 1%
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Ponoka weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ponoka swings 37°C across the year, from 24°C highs in July to -13°C lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 540 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
24°C average high
Coldest month
January
-13°C average low
Wettest month
June
540 mm a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, July, August and September
Residents
6,656
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Ponoka and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ponoka hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ponoka 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
21°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
22°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
24°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
26°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
19°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
22°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
17°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
13°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
13°
±5°
Sun
Clear
17°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
16°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
13°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
10°
±5°
Thu
Heavy drizzle
10°
±8°

Ponoka, Alberta is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -13°C), with roughly 540 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Ponoka right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Ponoka climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-5°
-13°
Feb
-2°
-12°
Mar
-12°
Apr
10°
-1°
May
18°
Jun
20°
Jul
24°
13°
Aug
23°
12°
Sep
19°
Oct
10°
Nov
-6°
Dec
-1°
-8°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ponoka?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C97±1.7 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
85±0.8°C92±3.9 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
74
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C95±2.7 km/t5374% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 21°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±1°22° to 23°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±3°23° to 26°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±3°24° to 27°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±5°16° to 20°±7%0% to 7% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ponoka

today, local time
Sunrise
07:13
Sunset
19:41
Daylight
12h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ponoka today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Ponoka today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ponoka today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Ponoka and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ponoka?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ponoka (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ponoka?
July is typically the warmest month in Ponoka, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Ponoka get?
The coldest month in Ponoka is January, when overnight lows average about -13°C.
How much rain does Ponoka get?
Ponoka sees roughly 540 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather