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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Simcoe weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Simcoe's high today between 18° and 21°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks rain around 19°, with a 90% chance of rain.

20°14°
19°12°
16°11°
17°12°
15°12°
17°11°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 13°·Rain 29%
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Drizzle
Today 18°·Low 15°·Rain 69%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Cloudy
Today 20°·Low 14°·Rain 33%
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Simcoe weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Simcoe swings 30°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -4°C lows in January, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1015 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
January
-4°C average low
Wettest month
April
1015 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
14,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Simcoe and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Simcoe hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Simcoe 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
20° 14°
±3°
Tomorrow
Rain
19° 12°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
16° 11°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
17° 12°
±3°
Wed
Drizzle
15° 12°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
19° 10°
±4°
Sat
Mostly clear
20°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
21°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
19° 11°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
19° 14°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
18° 14°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
17° 11°
±3°
Fri
Mostly clear
16°
±3°

Simcoe, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -4°C), with roughly 1015 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Simcoe right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Simcoe climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
Feb
-4°
Mar
-2°
Apr
14°
May
20°
Jun
24°
15°
Jul
26°
17°
Aug
25°
16°
Sep
23°
15°
Oct
16°
Nov
Dec
-1°

Which forecast is most accurate in Simcoe?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
90±0.5°C95±2.7 km/t8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
80
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C95±2.5 km/t5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
74
/100rank #3
69±1.7°C94±3.2 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°18° to 21°±40%29% to 69% chance
Tomorrow±3°18° to 20°±36%54% to 90% chance
Mon±4°15° to 19°±5%1% to 6% chance
Tue±3°15° to 19°±4%10% to 14% chance
Wed±2°14° to 16°±2%28% to 30% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Simcoe

today, local time
Sunrise
07:05
Sunset
19:23
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Simcoe today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Simcoe today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Simcoe today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Simcoe and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Simcoe?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Simcoe (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Simcoe?
July is typically the warmest month in Simcoe, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Simcoe get?
The coldest month in Simcoe is January, when overnight lows average about -4°C.
How much rain does Simcoe get?
Simcoe sees roughly 1015 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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