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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°C

Vanier weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Vanier's high today between 16° and 20°, a 4° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 20°, with a 66% chance of rain.

19°10°
20°12°
15°
15°
16°11°
15°10°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 10°·Rain 15%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low 10°·Rain 47%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Cloudy
Today 19°·Low ·Rain 15%
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Vanier weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Vanier swings 32°C across the year, from 26°C highs in July to -6°C lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 969 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 67 days a year at 25°C or above, 9 of them at 30°C or above, 139 frost nights, and rain on 140 days.

Warmest month
July
26°C average high
Coldest month
February
-6°C average low
Wettest month
July
969 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
15,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
67 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
139 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
140 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Vanier’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Vanier and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Vanier hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Vanier 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
19° 10°
±4°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
20° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
16° 11°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
20°
±4°
Sat
Mostly clear
20°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
21°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
20°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
20° 13°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
16° 12°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
14°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
15°
±6°

Vanier, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 26°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -6°C), with roughly 969 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Vanier right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Vanier climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-5°
Feb
-6°
Mar
-3°
Apr
13°
May
20°
Jun
24°
14°
Jul
26°
16°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
23°
13°
Oct
16°
Nov
Dec
-3°

Which forecast is most accurate in Vanier?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C98±1.0 km/t8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C97±1.5 km/t7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
76
/100rank #3
72±1.6°C96±1.8 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°16° to 20°±32%15% to 47% chance
Tomorrow±1°19° to 20°±19%47% to 66% chance
Mon±2°15° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±6%4% to 10% chance
Wed±1°15° to 16°±13%20% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Vanier

today, local time
Sunrise
07:05
Sunset
19:24
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Vanier today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Vanier today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Vanier today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Vanier and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Vanier?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Vanier (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Vanier?
July is typically the warmest month in Vanier, with average highs around 26°C.
How cold does Vanier get?
The coldest month in Vanier is February, when overnight lows average about -6°C.
How much rain does Vanier get?
Vanier sees roughly 969 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather