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CheckWeather CAVictoria-Downtown
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Victoria-Downtown weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Victoria-Downtown's high today between 17° and 20°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 20°, with a 0% chance of rain.

19°10°
20°10°
20°10°
20°11°
19°10°
18°10°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowsplit ±3°Sundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
17°
Mostly clear
Today 17°·Low ·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Partly cloudy
Today 20°·Low 13°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 0%
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Victoria-Downtown weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Victoria-Downtown swings 22°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to 3°C lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1000 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 28 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 17 frost nights, and rain on 138 days.

Warmest month
July
25°C average high
Coldest month
January
3°C average low
Wettest month
December
1000 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
46,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
88/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
28 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
17 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
138 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Victoria-Downtown’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Victoria-Downtown and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Victoria-Downtown hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Victoria-Downtown 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
19° 10°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
20° 10°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20° 11°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
19° 10°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
18° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
16° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
17° 10°
±3°
Sat
Mostly clear
18°
±6°
Sun
Partly cloudy
17°
±3°
Mon
Drizzle
18° 11°
±4°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
17° 10°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
15°
models agree

Victoria-Downtown, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1000 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Victoria-Downtown right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Victoria-Downtown climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
12°
May
18°
10°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
25°
14°
Aug
24°
14°
Sep
19°
12°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Victoria-Downtown?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
86±0.8°C90±4.9 km/t8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
81±1.0°C93±3.5 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
81
/100rank #3
79±1.2°C97±1.6 km/t7184% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°17° to 20°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°19° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±1°19° to 20°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±3°19° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°18° to 21°±5%0% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Victoria-Downtown

today, local time
Sunrise
06:54
Sunset
19:19
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Victoria-Downtown today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Victoria-Downtown today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Victoria-Downtown today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Victoria-Downtown and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Victoria-Downtown?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Victoria-Downtown (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Victoria-Downtown?
July is typically the warmest month in Victoria-Downtown, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Victoria-Downtown get?
The coldest month in Victoria-Downtown is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Victoria-Downtown get?
Victoria-Downtown sees roughly 1000 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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