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CheckWeather AUWarragul
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°C

Warragul weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Warragul's high today between 21° and 25°, a 4° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 26°, with a 21% chance of rain.

23°14°
26°12°
14°
16°
20°
25°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
13°
Clear
Feels 11° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 64%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Clear
Feels 10° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 82%
GermanDWD ICON
13°
Clear
Feels 12° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 59%

Latest for Warragul: European (ECMWF): 13° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Clear · German (DWD ICON): 13° Clear.

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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Warragul and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Warragul hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

Loading the three models…

Warragul 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
23° 14°
±4°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
26° 12°
±3°
Mon
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
20°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
25°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
27° 14°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
27° 14°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
24° 13°
±10°
Mon
Cloudy
27° 14°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
19° 11°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
16° 10°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
17° 10°
±8°
Fri
Mostly clear
22° 11°
±5°

Warragul is a small town of about 20,000 people in Victoria, sitting at 38.2°S in a temperate climate zone. European, American, German each forecast Warragul with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Drouin, Moe, Newborough.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Which forecast is most accurate in Warragul?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C96±2.0 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
81
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C93±3.4 km/t5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
75±1.4°C80±10.1 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1495 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°21° to 25°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±3°24° to 27°±19%2% to 21% chance
Mon±1°13° to 15°±17%48% to 65% chance
Tue±1°16° to 17°±3%0% to 3% chance
Wed±2°20° to 21°±2%0% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Warragul

today, local time
Sunrise
06:10
Sunset
18:09
Daylight
11h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Warragul today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Warragul today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Warragul today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Warragul and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Warragul?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Warragul (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the German at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

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