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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Morden weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 21° in Morden today. Tomorrow looks rain around 19°, with a 57% chance of rain.

21°
19°11°
17°
20°
20°
20°12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
18°
Overcast
Feels 17° · Wind 16 km/h · Humidity 81%
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Overcast
Feels 18° · Wind 17 km/h · Humidity 65%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Overcast
Feels 16° · Wind 19 km/h · Humidity 86%

Latest for Morden: Env. Canada (GEM model): 18° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 19° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 17° Overcast.

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Morden weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Morden swings 38°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to -13°C lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 610 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
25°C average high
Coldest month
January
-13°C average low
Wettest month
June
610 mm a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, July, August and September
Residents
8,668
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Morden and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Morden hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Morden 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
21°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
19° 11°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Mon
Clear
20°
models agree
Tue
Clear
20°
±4°
Wed
Partly cloudy
20° 12°
±4°
Thu
Mostly clear
24° 13°
±7°
Fri
Mostly clear
23° 15°
±7°
Sat
Showers
21° 16°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
18° 11°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
16°
±11°
Tue
Light drizzle
18°
±11°
Wed
Cloudy
17°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
14°
±6°

Morden, Manitoba is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -13°C), with roughly 610 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Morden right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Morden climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-7°
-13°
Feb
-3°
-12°
Mar
-2°
-11°
Apr
-2°
May
19°
Jun
24°
14°
Jul
25°
15°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
23°
13°
Oct
12°
Nov
-5°
Dec
-2°
-10°

Which forecast is most accurate in Morden?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C96±2.2 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
84
/100rank #2
74±1.5°C93±3.3 km/t8994% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C95±2.5 km/t6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 21°±50%19% to 69% chance
Tomorrow±3°18° to 20°±27%30% to 57% chance
Sun±1°17° to 18°±3%0% to 3% chance
Mon±1°19° to 21°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±4°18° to 22°±5%0% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Morden

today, local time
Sunrise
07:13
Sunset
19:38
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Morden today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Morden today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Morden today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Morden and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Morden?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Morden (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Morden?
July is typically the warmest month in Morden, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Morden get?
The coldest month in Morden is January, when overnight lows average about -13°C.
How much rain does Morden get?
Morden sees roughly 610 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather