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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Nelson weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Nelson's high today between 23° and 25°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 26°, with a 1% chance of rain.

24°11°
26°14°
26°15°
26°13°
26°13°
24°14°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowsplit ±4°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
23°
Clear
Today 23°·Low 11°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
25°
Clear
Today 25°·Low 13°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Mostly clear
Today 25°·Low ·Rain 0%
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Nelson weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Nelson swings 34°C across the year, from 30°C highs in July to -4°C lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 813 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
30°C average high
Coldest month
January
-4°C average low
Wettest month
November
813 mm a year
Below freezing
3 months
January, February and March
Comfortable
3 months
May, June and September
Residents
11,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Nelson and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Nelson hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Nelson 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
24° 11°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
26° 14°
±4°
Sun
Clear
26° 15°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
26° 13°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
26° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
24° 14°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
23° 13°
±3°
Fri
Light rain
20° 11°
±6°
Sat
Heavy drizzle
18°
±5°
Sun
Mostly clear
18°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
20°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
20° 10°
±8°
Wed
Drizzle
20° 10°
±10°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 10°
±9°

Nelson, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 30°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -4°C), with roughly 813 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Nelson right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Nelson climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
Feb
-4°
Mar
-3°
Apr
13°
May
21°
Jun
23°
11°
Jul
30°
16°
Aug
28°
15°
Sep
23°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Nelson?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C98±1.2 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
69
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C94±3.1 km/t4268% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
69
/100rank #3
75±1.4°C92±4.0 km/t4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°23° to 25°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±4°24° to 28°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±2°25° to 27°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±2°25° to 27°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°25° to 26°±5%0% to 5% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Nelson

today, local time
Sunrise
06:30
Sunset
18:55
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Nelson today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Nelson today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Nelson today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Nelson and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Nelson?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Nelson (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Nelson?
July is typically the warmest month in Nelson, with average highs around 30°C.
How cold does Nelson get?
The coldest month in Nelson is January, when overnight lows average about -4°C.
How much rain does Nelson get?
Nelson sees roughly 813 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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