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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Trail weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 26° in Trail today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 28°, with a 0% chance of rain.

26°
28°14°
27°14°
27°11°
27°13°
24°14°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
25°
Clear
Today 25°·Low 11°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
26°
Mostly clear
Today 26°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
27°
Partly cloudy
Today 27°·Low ·Rain 0%
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Trail weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Trail swings 38°C across the year, from 32°C highs in July to -6°C lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 652 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
32°C average high
Coldest month
January
-6°C average low
Wettest month
November
652 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
7,920
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Trail and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Trail hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Trail 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
26°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
28° 14°
±3°
Sun
Clear
27° 14°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
27° 11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
27° 13°
±3°
Wed
Partly cloudy
24° 14°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
23° 12°
±4°
Fri
Light rain
21° 11°
±8°
Sat
Cloudy
20°
±6°
Sun
Mostly clear
19°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
22°
±7°
Tue
Cloudy
22°
±8°
Wed
Light drizzle
21° 10°
±9°
Thu
Light drizzle
19°
±7°

Trail, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 32°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -6°C), with roughly 652 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Trail right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Trail climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-6°
Feb
-4°
Mar
-4°
Apr
14°
May
22°
Jun
24°
10°
Jul
32°
15°
Aug
30°
15°
Sep
25°
11°
Oct
16°
Nov
Dec
-2°

Which forecast is most accurate in Trail?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C97±1.5 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
71
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C95±2.6 km/t4771% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
65
/100rank #3
73±1.5°C94±3.2 km/t3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1304 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°25° to 27°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°26° to 29°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±2°26° to 28°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±2°26° to 28°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°25° to 28°±14%0% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Trail

today, local time
Sunrise
06:31
Sunset
18:56
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Trail today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Trail today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Trail today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Trail and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Trail?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Trail (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 71. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Trail?
July is typically the warmest month in Trail, with average highs around 32°C.
How cold does Trail get?
The coldest month in Trail is January, when overnight lows average about -6°C.
How much rain does Trail get?
Trail sees roughly 652 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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