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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Naenae weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 16° in Naenae today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 13°, with a 100% chance of rain.

16°
13°
14°
14°
10°
13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 68%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Cloudy
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 3%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 5%
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Naenae weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Naenae swings 14°C across the year, from 21°C highs in January to 7°C lows in July, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1238 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
21°C average high
Coldest month
July
7°C average low
Wettest month
May
1238 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
9,720
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Naenae and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Naenae hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Naenae 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
13°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
14°
models agree
Tue
Rain
14°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
10°
models agree
Thu
Clear
13°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
13°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
10°
±2°
Tue
Mostly clear
13°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
15°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
16° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
14°
models agree

Naenae, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1238 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Naenae right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Naenae climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
21°
15°
Feb
20°
15°
Mar
18°
13°
Apr
17°
12°
May
15°
10°
Jun
14°
Jul
13°
Aug
12°
Sep
14°
Oct
15°
10°
Nov
17°
11°
Dec
19°
14°

Which forecast is most accurate in Naenae?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
88±0.6°C87±6.3 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C86±7.1 km/t7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
78
/100rank #3
88±0.7°C89±5.7 km/t5877% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°±65%3% to 68% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree13° to 13°±30%70% to 100% chance
Mon±1°14° to 15°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°13° to 15°±37%61% to 98% chance
Wed±1°9° to 10°±60%30% to 90% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Naenae

today, local time
Sunrise
06:15
Sunset
18:13
Daylight
11h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Naenae today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Naenae today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Naenae today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Naenae and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Naenae?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Naenae (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Naenae?
January is typically the warmest month in Naenae, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Naenae get?
The coldest month in Naenae is July, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Naenae get?
Naenae sees roughly 1238 mm of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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