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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Hamilton weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 15° in Hamilton today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 14°, with a 82% chance of rain.

15°
14°
14°
17°
14°
14°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 74%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 65%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Cloudy
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 5%
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Hamilton weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Hamilton swings 19°C across the year, from 24°C highs in January to 5°C lows in August, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1417 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
24°C average high
Coldest month
August
5°C average low
Wettest month
January
1417 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and May
Residents
192,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Hamilton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Hamilton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Hamilton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
14°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
17°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Thu
Clear
14°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
15°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
15°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
14°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
14°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
14°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
16° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
18° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
17°
models agree

Hamilton, New Zealand. Below we compare what European, American, German forecast for Hamilton right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Hamilton's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Hamilton weather by month

what to expect in Hamilton through the year

Here is Hamilton's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Hamilton by season.

Jan
24°
16°
Warm
Wettest
Feb
23°
14°
Warm
Mar
21°
11°
Mild
Apr
19°
12°
Mild
May
16°
Mild
Jun
15°
Mild
Jul
14°
Cool
Aug
14°
Cool
Sep
16°
Mild
Oct
18°
Mild
Nov
20°
11°
Mild
Dec
23°
14°
Warm

What Hamilton's weather is like through the year

Hamilton runs from warm summers, with January highs near 24°C, to cold winters, when August lows sit around 5°C (a swing of about 19°C across the year). January is usually the wettest month, and Hamilton sees roughly 1417 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Hamilton

The most comfortable time to visit Hamilton is usually February, March, April and May, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Hamilton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±1.4 km/t100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
86
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C94±2.9 km/t7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
84
/100rank #3
93±0.4°C95±2.3 km/t6581% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Hamilton, scoring 97/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 86. See the full NZ accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree15° to 15°±69%5% to 74% chance
Tomorrow±1°14° to 15°±64%18% to 82% chance
Mon±1°14° to 15°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±2°16° to 17°±50%15% to 65% chance
Wed±2°13° to 15°±23%3% to 26% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Hamilton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:13
Sunset
18:12
Daylight
11h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Hamilton today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Hamilton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Hamilton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Hamilton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Hamilton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Hamilton (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Hamilton?
January is typically the warmest month in Hamilton, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Hamilton get?
The coldest month in Hamilton is August, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Hamilton get?
Hamilton sees roughly 1417 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Hamilton?
The most comfortable time to visit Hamilton is usually February, March, April and May, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Hamilton?
Rarely - Hamilton very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

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