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CheckWeather NZShirley
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Shirley weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in Shirley today. Tomorrow looks showers around 13°, with a 100% chance of rain.

18°
13°
17°
13°
11°
16°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low ·Rain 3%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Cloudy
Today 19°·Low ·Rain 3%
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Shirley weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Shirley swings 17°C across the year, from 21°C highs in January to 4°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 660 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
21°C average high
Coldest month
July
4°C average low
Wettest month
July
660 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
6,990
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Shirley and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Shirley hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Shirley 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
18°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
13°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
17°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
13°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
11°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
16°
±3°
Fri
Cloudy
13°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
16°
±4°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
16°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
18°
±4°
Thu
Partly cloudy
19°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
17°
±5°

Shirley, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 4°C), with roughly 660 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Shirley right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Shirley climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
21°
15°
Feb
21°
14°
Mar
19°
11°
Apr
17°
10°
May
14°
Jun
12°
Jul
11°
Aug
12°
Sep
15°
Oct
16°
Nov
17°
10°
Dec
20°
13°

Which forecast is most accurate in Shirley?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C92±3.8 km/t8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
79±1.2°C90±5.0 km/t6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
77
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C90±5.0 km/t5374% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°18° to 19°±1%3% to 4% chance
Tomorrow±1°12° to 13°±14%86% to 100% chance
Mon±3°16° to 19°±15%0% to 15% chance
Tue±5°11° to 17°±6%91% to 97% chance
Wed±2°10° to 12°±20%35% to 55% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Shirley

today, local time
Sunrise
06:25
Sunset
18:22
Daylight
11h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Shirley today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Shirley today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Shirley today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Shirley and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Shirley?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Shirley (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Shirley?
January is typically the warmest month in Shirley, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Shirley get?
The coldest month in Shirley is July, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Shirley get?
Shirley sees roughly 660 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

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