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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Derbyshire weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 20° in Derbyshire today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 17°, with a 6% chance of rain.

20°15°
17°10°
21°
22°13°
19°11°
19°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 14°·Rain 69%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 13°·Rain 66%
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Derbyshire weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for East Midlands

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for East Midlands…

Derbyshire weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Derbyshire swings 18°C across the year, from 20°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 973 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 12 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 147 days.

Warmest month
June
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
973 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
12 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
147 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Derbyshire’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Derbyshire and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Derbyshire hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Derbyshire 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 13°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
19° 11°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
19°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 10°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
19° 10°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
21°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
23° 10°
±5°
Tue
Light drizzle
18° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18° 10°
±2°
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 11°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
18° 14°
±2°

Derbyshire, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 973 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Derbyshire right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Derbyshire climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
20°
12°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Derbyshire?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C98±0.6 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
85
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C96±1.4 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C89±3.4 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°19° to 21°±3%66% to 69% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 17°±2%4% to 6% chance
Mon±4°19° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±5°19° to 24°±1%2% to 3% chance
Wed±5°17° to 22°±13%10% to 23% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Derbyshire

today, local time
Sunrise
06:46
Sunset
19:11
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Derbyshire today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Derbyshire today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Derbyshire today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Derbyshire and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Derbyshire?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Derbyshire (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the Met Office at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Derbyshire?
June is typically the warmest month in Derbyshire, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Derbyshire get?
The coldest month in Derbyshire is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Derbyshire get?
Derbyshire sees roughly 973 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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