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CheckWeather UKGrangemouth
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Grangemouth weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Grangemouth today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 16°, with a 31% chance of rain.

15°12°
16°10°
18°10°
19°15°
16°
17°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low 12°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low 12°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Light drizzle
Today 15°·Low 11°·Rain 100%
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Grangemouth weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Central, Tayside & Fife

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Central, Tayside & Fife…

Grangemouth weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Grangemouth swings 16°C across the year, from 18°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1126 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 2 days a year at 25°C or above, 42 frost nights, and rain on 176 days.

Warmest month
June
18°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
1126 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
16,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
94/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
2 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
42 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
176 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Grangemouth’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Grangemouth and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Grangemouth hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Grangemouth 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
15° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
19° 15°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17°
±4°
Fri
Heavy drizzle
17° 10°
±3°
Sat
Partly cloudy
13°
±4°
Sun
Drizzle
15°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
16° 11°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
20° 11°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 10°
±2°
Fri
Drizzle
15°
±3°

Grangemouth, Scotland is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1126 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Grangemouth right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Grangemouth climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
16°
Jun
18°
10°
Jul
18°
11°
Aug
18°
12°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Grangemouth?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C97±1.0 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
84
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C96±1.3 mph7184% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree16° to 16°±12%19% to 31% chance
Mon±2°17° to 19°±21%32% to 53% chance
Tue±1°19° to 20°±7%28% to 35% chance
Wed±1°16° to 16°±20%29% to 49% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Grangemouth

today, local time
Sunrise
06:54
Sunset
19:22
Daylight
12h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Grangemouth today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Grangemouth today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Grangemouth today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Grangemouth and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Grangemouth?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Grangemouth (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Grangemouth?
June is typically the warmest month in Grangemouth, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Grangemouth get?
The coldest month in Grangemouth is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Grangemouth get?
Grangemouth sees roughly 1126 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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