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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Louth weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 21° in Louth today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 18°, with a 3% chance of rain.

21°15°
18°11°
21°
22°13°
19°10°
19°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
17°
Overcast
Feels 15° · Wind 9 mph · Humidity 63%
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Partly cloudy
Feels 14° · Wind 10 mph · Humidity 67%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Overcast
Feels 14° · Wind 13 mph · Humidity 59%

Latest for Louth: Met Office (UKMO model): 17° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 17° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 17° Overcast.

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Louth weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for East Midlands

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for East Midlands…

Louth weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Louth swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 902 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 9 days a year at 25°C or above, 25 frost nights, and rain on 143 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
July
902 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
17,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
Met Office
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
9 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
25 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
143 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Louth’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Louth and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Louth hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Louth 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
21° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
18° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
22° 13°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
19° 10°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
19°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
20° 12°
±8°
Sat
Cloudy
19° 12°
±6°
Sun
Cloudy
20° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
25° 12°
±3°
Tue
Light rain
22° 13°
±3°
Wed
Light rain
24° 12°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 12°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
19° 13°
±4°

Louth, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 902 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Louth right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Louth climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
16°
Jun
18°
11°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
19°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Louth?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
Met Office logo
Met Office ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C97±0.8 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
European logo
European
90
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C92±2.4 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree21° to 22°±20%51% to 71% chance
Tomorrow±1°18° to 19°±3%0% to 3% chance
Mon±1°20° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°21° to 25°±4%2% to 6% chance
Wed±3°17° to 21°±13%16% to 29% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Louth

today, local time
Sunrise
06:40
Sunset
19:06
Daylight
12h 26m

Common questions

What's the weather in Louth today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Louth today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Louth today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Louth and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Louth?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Louth (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the European at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Louth?
August is typically the warmest month in Louth, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Louth get?
The coldest month in Louth is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Louth get?
Louth sees roughly 902 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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