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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Penrith weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Penrith today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 15°, with a 14% chance of rain.

16°12°
15°
18°
18°13°
15°
16°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low 12°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low 12°·Rain 78%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Light drizzle
Today 16°·Low 11°·Rain 100%
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Penrith weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for North East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for North East England…

Penrith weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Penrith swings 17°C across the year, from 18°C highs in June to 1°C lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1358 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 3 days a year at 25°C or above, 49 frost nights, and rain on 186 days.

Warmest month
June
18°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
January
1358 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
17,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
3 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
49 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
186 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Penrith’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Penrith and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Penrith hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Penrith 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
16° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
18°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
18° 13°
models agree
Wed
Rain
15°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
16°
±3°
Fri
Light rain
18° 10°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
15°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19° 11°
±6°
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
20° 10°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
16°
±2°

Penrith, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1358 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Penrith right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Penrith climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
10°
May
16°
Jun
18°
Jul
17°
11°
Aug
17°
11°
Sep
16°
Oct
12°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Penrith?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
88
/100rank #2
78±1.2°C96±1.3 mph9597% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
88
/100rank #3
88±0.7°C95±1.6 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°16° to 16°±22%78% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°14° to 15°±4%10% to 14% chance
Mon±1°18° to 19°±12%17% to 29% chance
Tue±1°18° to 19°±10%19% to 29% chance
Wed±1°14° to 15°±10%35% to 45% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Penrith

today, local time
Sunrise
06:50
Sunset
19:17
Daylight
12h 27m

Common questions

What's the weather in Penrith today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Penrith today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Penrith today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Penrith and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Penrith?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Penrith (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the Met Office at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Penrith?
June is typically the warmest month in Penrith, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Penrith get?
The coldest month in Penrith is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Penrith get?
Penrith sees roughly 1358 mm of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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