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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Selsey weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Selsey today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 20°, with a 23% chance of rain.

18°12°
20°17°
21°15°
22°13°
22°15°
20°14°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±6°
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low 14°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low 10°·Rain 6%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low 12°·Rain 0%
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Selsey weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Selsey weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Selsey swings 16°C across the year, from 20°C highs in June to 4°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1077 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 5 days a year at 25°C or above, 13 frost nights, and rain on 145 days.

Warmest month
June
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
4°C average low
Wettest month
September
1077 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
11,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
Met Office
92/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
5 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
13 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
145 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Selsey’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Selsey and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Selsey hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Selsey 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
18° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
20° 17°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
21° 15°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
22° 13°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 15°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
20° 14°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 15°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
23° 15°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
21° 15°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
20° 12°
models agree
Mon
Clear
19° 11°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
21° 11°
±5°
Wed
Partly cloudy
23° 14°
±9°
Thu
Cloudy
17° 13°
±3°

Selsey, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 4°C), with roughly 1077 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Selsey right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Selsey climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
16°
10°
Jun
20°
13°
Jul
19°
15°
Aug
20°
15°
Sep
20°
14°
Oct
16°
12°
Nov
12°
Dec
10°

Which forecast is most accurate in Selsey?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
Met Office logo
Met Office ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C95±1.6 mph8994% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #2
88±0.7°C90±3.1 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
75
/100rank #3
66±1.9°C88±3.8 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree18° to 18°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±1°19° to 20°±9%14% to 23% chance
Sun±1°20° to 21°±2%10% to 12% chance
Mon±3°21° to 24°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±4°20° to 24°±8%0% to 8% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Selsey

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:10
Daylight
12h 27m

Common questions

What's the weather in Selsey today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Selsey today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Selsey today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Selsey and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Selsey?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Selsey (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Selsey?
June is typically the warmest month in Selsey, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Selsey get?
The coldest month in Selsey is January, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Selsey get?
Selsey sees roughly 1077 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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