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CheckWeather UKSouth Elmsall
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

South Elmsall weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 20° in South Elmsall today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain.

20°15°
17°11°
20°10°
22°14°
18°10°
19°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°
Met OfficeUKMO model
19°
Drizzle
Today 19°·Low 14°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 14°·Rain 47%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain 72%
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South Elmsall weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Yorkshire & Humber

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Yorkshire & Humber…

South Elmsall weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

South Elmsall swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 960 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 11 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 147 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
960 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
19,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
11 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
147 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for South Elmsall’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around South Elmsall and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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South Elmsall hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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South Elmsall 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
22° 14°
±3°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
19°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
21° 13°
±8°
Sat
Cloudy
18° 11°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
19° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
24° 11°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 14°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
24° 12°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
22° 13°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
19° 13°
±4°

South Elmsall, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 960 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for South Elmsall right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

South Elmsall climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in South Elmsall?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
90±0.6°C95±1.5 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
87
/100rank #2
90±0.5°C96±1.2 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #3
86±0.8°C93±2.1 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree19° to 20°±25%47% to 72% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 18°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±2°19° to 22°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tue±3°21° to 23°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±2°17° to 19°±20%6% to 26% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in South Elmsall

today, local time
Sunrise
06:45
Sunset
19:11
Daylight
12h 26m

Common questions

What's the weather in South Elmsall today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for South Elmsall today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in South Elmsall today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for South Elmsall and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for South Elmsall?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for South Elmsall (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Met Office at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in South Elmsall?
August is typically the warmest month in South Elmsall, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does South Elmsall get?
The coldest month in South Elmsall is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does South Elmsall get?
South Elmsall sees roughly 960 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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