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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Totton weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 21° in Totton today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 20°, with a 19% chance of rain.

21°16°
20°13°
22°10°
23°12°
22°12°
21°11°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±5°
Met OfficeUKMO model
21°
Drizzle
Today 21°·Low 17°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 16°·Rain 28%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 17°·Rain 16%
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Totton weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Totton weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Totton swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in June to 2°C lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1058 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 16 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 22 frost nights, and rain on 140 days.

Warmest month
June
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
March
1058 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
34,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
85/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
16 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
22 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
140 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Totton’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Totton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Totton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Totton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
21° 16°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
20° 13°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
22° 10°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
23° 12°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
22° 12°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
21° 11°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
22° 13°
±2°
Sat
Light drizzle
20° 13°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
22° 12°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
24° 13°
±4°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
22° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
22° 12°
±7°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 15°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
20° 15°
models agree

Totton, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1058 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Totton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Totton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
11°
Mar
11°
Apr
13°
May
17°
Jun
21°
12°
Jul
21°
13°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
20°
12°
Oct
16°
10°
Nov
11°
Dec
10°

Which forecast is most accurate in Totton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C98±0.7 mph6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
81
/100rank #2
92±0.4°C96±1.2 mph5877% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C95±1.6 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°21° to 21°±12%16% to 28% chance
Tomorrow±1°19° to 20°±5%14% to 19% chance
Mon±3°21° to 24°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°22° to 25°±2%0% to 2% chance
Wed±5°19° to 25°±6%0% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Totton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:47
Sunset
19:11
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Totton today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Totton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Totton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Totton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Totton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Totton (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the Met Office at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Totton?
June is typically the warmest month in Totton, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Totton get?
The coldest month in Totton is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Totton get?
Totton sees roughly 1058 mm of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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