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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Bristol weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 77° in Bristol today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 66°, with a 1% chance of rain.

77°62°
66°52°
62°52°
65°52°
59°49°
63°49°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±9°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
78°
Partly cloudy
Today 78°·Low 61°·Rain 6%
AmericanNOAA GFS
78°
Cloudy
Today 78°·Low 61°·Rain 6%
EuropeanECMWF
77°
Cloudy
Today 77°·Low 62°·Rain 23%
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Bristol weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Bristol weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Bristol swings 59°F across the year, from 84°F highs in July to 25°F lows in February, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 58 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
84°F average high
Coldest month
February
25°F average low
Wettest month
December
58 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, August and September
Residents
60,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Bristol and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Bristol hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Bristol 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
77° 62°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
66° 52°
models agree
Sun
Rain
62° 52°
±9°
Mon
Drizzle
65° 52°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
59° 49°
±6°
Wed
Cloudy
63° 49°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
60° 48°
±10°
Fri
Drizzle
60° 50°
±10°
Sat
Light drizzle
64° 51°
±12°
Sun
Partly cloudy
67° 51°
±14°
Mon
Mostly clear
69° 53°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
69° 54°
models agree
Wed
Rain
74° 55°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
66° 51°
±6°

Bristol, Connecticut (CT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 25°F), with roughly 58 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Bristol right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Bristol climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
40°
27°
Feb
42°
25°
Mar
49°
31°
Apr
60°
40°
May
70°
49°
Jun
79°
58°
Jul
84°
66°
Aug
78°
62°
Sep
73°
56°
Oct
64°
47°
Nov
51°
35°
Dec
42°
29°

Which forecast is most accurate in Bristol?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
82
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F98±0.8 mph5877% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
70
/100rank #2
90±1.0°F97±1.0 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°77° to 78°±17%6% to 23% chance
Tomorrow±3°65° to 67°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±9°57° to 66°±7%93% to 100% chance
Mon±2°64° to 66°±10%65% to 75% chance
Tue±6°56° to 62°±1%3% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bristol

today, local time
Sunrise
06:35
Sunset
18:55
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bristol today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Bristol today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Bristol today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Bristol and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bristol?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Bristol (CheckWeather Score 82/100), ahead of the American at 70. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Bristol?
July is typically the warmest month in Bristol, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Bristol get?
The coldest month in Bristol is February, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Bristol get?
Bristol sees roughly 58 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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