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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Brownsville weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 94° in Brownsville today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 93°, with a 74% chance of rain.

94°78°
93°78°
96°78°
95°79°
94°79°
92°79°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
93°
Light drizzle
Today 93°·Low 80°·Rain 5%
AmericanNOAA GFS
97°
Partly cloudy
Today 97°·Low 81°·Rain 5%
EuropeanECMWF
93°
Thunderstorm
Today 93°·Low 73°·Rain 86%
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Brownsville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Brownsville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Brownsville swings 36°F across the year, from 94°F highs in August to 58°F lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 35 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
94°F average high
Coldest month
January
58°F average low
Wettest month
September
35 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
January, February and December
Residents
187,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Brownsville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Brownsville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Brownsville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
94° 78°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
93° 78°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
96° 78°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
95° 79°
±6°
Tue
Light drizzle
94° 79°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
92° 79°
±9°
Thu
Light drizzle
92° 79°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
93° 80°
±5°
Sat
Light drizzle
92° 79°
±6°
Sun
Light drizzle
94° 78°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
94° 78°
models agree
Tue
Thunderstorm
91° 79°
±7°
Wed
Light drizzle
90° 76°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
92° 76°
models agree

Brownsville, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 94°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 58°F), with roughly 35 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Brownsville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Brownsville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
73°
58°
Feb
75°
59°
Mar
81°
66°
Apr
84°
69°
May
90°
76°
Jun
93°
79°
Jul
93°
79°
Aug
94°
79°
Sep
92°
78°
Oct
86°
71°
Nov
79°
65°
Dec
75°
61°

Which forecast is most accurate in Brownsville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F99±0.4 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
71
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F90±3.1 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°93° to 97°±81%5% to 86% chance
Tomorrow±4°91° to 95°±68%6% to 74% chance
Sun±5°93° to 99°±34%13% to 47% chance
Mon±6°92° to 98°±57%21% to 78% chance
Tue±4°92° to 96°±44%34% to 78% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Brownsville

today, local time
Sunrise
07:16
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 14m

Common questions

What's the weather in Brownsville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Brownsville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Brownsville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Brownsville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Brownsville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Brownsville (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 71. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Brownsville?
August is typically the warmest month in Brownsville, with average highs around 94°F.
How cold does Brownsville get?
The coldest month in Brownsville is January, when overnight lows average about 58°F.
How much rain does Brownsville get?
Brownsville sees roughly 35 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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