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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Buffalo weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Buffalo's high today between 69° and 74°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 69°, with a 32% chance of rain.

72°59°
69°54°
65°58°
62°53°
59°51°
61°51°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±11°Wednesdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
72°
Light drizzle
Today 72°·Low 58°·Rain 7%
AmericanNOAA GFS
74°
Cloudy
Today 74°·Low 59°·Rain 7%
EuropeanECMWF
69°
Light drizzle
Today 69°·Low 60°·Rain 49%
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Buffalo weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Buffalo weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Buffalo swings 53°F across the year, from 79°F highs in July to 26°F lows in February, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 46 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
79°F average high
Coldest month
February
26°F average low
Wettest month
April
46 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
258,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Buffalo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Buffalo hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Buffalo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
72° 59°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
69° 54°
models agree
Sun
Rain
65° 58°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
62° 53°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
59° 51°
±11°
Wed
Drizzle
61° 51°
±8°
Thu
Drizzle
64° 52°
±5°
Fri
Partly cloudy
67° 52°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
70° 52°
±5°
Sun
Mostly clear
71° 54°
±7°
Mon
Cloudy
72° 55°
±12°
Tue
Cloudy
74° 59°
±12°
Wed
Drizzle
65° 55°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
62° 53°
±7°

Buffalo, New York (NY) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 79°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 26°F), with roughly 46 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Buffalo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Buffalo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
36°
27°
Feb
40°
26°
Mar
44°
30°
Apr
57°
39°
May
67°
49°
Jun
75°
60°
Jul
79°
65°
Aug
76°
62°
Sep
74°
58°
Oct
61°
49°
Nov
49°
38°
Dec
41°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Buffalo?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F96±1.2 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
77±2.3°F95±1.6 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°69° to 74°±42%7% to 49% chance
Tomorrow±4°67° to 71°±14%18% to 32% chance
Sun±2°64° to 66°±23%67% to 90% chance
Mon±2°61° to 62°models agree4% to 4% chance
Tue±11°53° to 63°±13%8% to 21% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Buffalo

today, local time
Sunrise
06:58
Sunset
19:19
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Buffalo today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Buffalo today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Buffalo today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Buffalo and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Buffalo?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Buffalo (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 73. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Buffalo?
July is typically the warmest month in Buffalo, with average highs around 79°F.
How cold does Buffalo get?
The coldest month in Buffalo is February, when overnight lows average about 26°F.
How much rain does Buffalo get?
Buffalo sees roughly 46 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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