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CheckWeather USCastle Rock
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Castle Rock weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 80° in Castle Rock today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 74°, with a 96% chance of rain.

80°59°
74°54°
71°51°
73°50°
76°53°
75°54°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±8°Sundaysplit ±4°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
80°
Light rain
Today 80°·Low 58°·Rain 41%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Light drizzle
Today 81°·Low 60°·Rain 41%
EuropeanECMWF
79°
Light drizzle
Today 79°·Low 59°·Rain 73%
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Castle Rock weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Castle Rock weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Castle Rock swings 75°F across the year, from 85°F highs in July to 10°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 24 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
85°F average high
Coldest month
January
10°F average low
Wettest month
May
24 in a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
1 month
October
Residents
56,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Castle Rock and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Castle Rock hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Castle Rock 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
80° 59°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
74° 54°
±8°
Sun
Light drizzle
71° 51°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
73° 50°
±5°
Tue
Partly cloudy
76° 53°
±8°
Wed
Partly cloudy
75° 54°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
75° 56°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
75° 54°
±13°
Sat
Mostly clear
77° 56°
±9°
Sun
Mostly clear
77° 52°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
74° 51°
±11°
Tue
Cloudy
75° 49°
±14°
Wed
Cloudy
79° 52°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
81° 55°
models agree

Castle Rock, Colorado (CO) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 10°F), with roughly 24 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Castle Rock right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Castle Rock climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
35°
10°
Feb
44°
14°
Mar
47°
20°
Apr
59°
30°
May
68°
40°
Jun
79°
51°
Jul
85°
54°
Aug
84°
56°
Sep
79°
48°
Oct
68°
38°
Nov
49°
23°
Dec
46°
20°

Which forecast is most accurate in Castle Rock?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
75
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F90±3.2 mph5374% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
67
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F83±5.2 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°79° to 81°±32%41% to 73% chance
Tomorrow±8°69° to 76°±66%30% to 96% chance
Sun±4°69° to 73°±38%52% to 90% chance
Mon±5°71° to 76°±28%24% to 52% chance
Tue±8°72° to 81°±27%28% to 55% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Castle Rock

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:02
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Castle Rock today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Castle Rock today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Castle Rock today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Castle Rock and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Castle Rock?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Castle Rock (CheckWeather Score 75/100), ahead of the American at 67. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Castle Rock?
July is typically the warmest month in Castle Rock, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does Castle Rock get?
The coldest month in Castle Rock is January, when overnight lows average about 10°F.
How much rain does Castle Rock get?
Castle Rock sees roughly 24 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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