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CheckWeather USCharlottesville
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Charlottesville weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 85° in Charlottesville today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 77°, with a 21% chance of rain.

85°71°
77°65°
85°66°
71°64°
66°60°
61°56°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±4°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
86°
Light drizzle
Today 86°·Low 71°·Rain 12%
AmericanNOAA GFS
85°
Cloudy
Today 85°·Low 70°·Rain 12%
EuropeanECMWF
85°
Thunderstorm
Today 85°·Low 71°·Rain 89%
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Charlottesville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Charlottesville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Charlottesville swings 59°F across the year, from 91°F highs in July to 32°F lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 37 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
91°F average high
Coldest month
January
32°F average low
Wettest month
September
37 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, May and October
Residents
47,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Charlottesville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Charlottesville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Charlottesville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
85° 71°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
77° 65°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
85° 66°
±4°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
71° 64°
±5°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
66° 60°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
61° 56°
±5°
Thu
Heavy drizzle
67° 56°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
71° 56°
±9°
Sat
Light drizzle
71° 53°
±8°
Sun
Mostly clear
74° 51°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 53°
±5°
Tue
Fog
73° 57°
±9°
Wed
Rain
81° 60°
models agree
Thu
Clear
74° 53°
±9°

Charlottesville, Virginia (VA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Charlottesville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Charlottesville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
49°
32°
Feb
55°
34°
Mar
61°
38°
Apr
72°
48°
May
76°
55°
Jun
85°
61°
Jul
91°
69°
Aug
88°
66°
Sep
80°
61°
Oct
72°
48°
Nov
60°
39°
Dec
50°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in Charlottesville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F95±1.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F93±2.1 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°85° to 86°±77%12% to 89% chance
Tomorrow±2°77° to 79°±8%13% to 21% chance
Sun±4°83° to 87°±35%28% to 63% chance
Mon±5°69° to 74°±36%24% to 60% chance
Tue±3°64° to 67°±2%60% to 62% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Charlottesville

today, local time
Sunrise
06:58
Sunset
19:17
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Charlottesville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Charlottesville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Charlottesville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Charlottesville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Charlottesville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Charlottesville (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Charlottesville?
July is typically the warmest month in Charlottesville, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Charlottesville get?
The coldest month in Charlottesville is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Charlottesville get?
Charlottesville sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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