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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Chesterfield weather

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Heavy drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 96° in Chesterfield today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 97°, with a 6% chance of rain.

96°73°
97°75°
93°73°
77°66°
69°62°
74°59°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
97°
Heavy drizzle
Today 97°·Low 74°·Rain 11%
AmericanNOAA GFS
97°
Cloudy
Today 97°·Low 73°·Rain 11%
EuropeanECMWF
95°
Light drizzle
Today 95°·Low 73°·Rain 37%
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Chesterfield weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Chesterfield weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Chesterfield swings 61°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 27°F lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 45 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
27°F average low
Wettest month
March
45 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
January
Comfortable
2 months
April and October
Residents
48,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Chesterfield and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Chesterfield hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Chesterfield 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
96° 73°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
97° 75°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
93° 73°
±4°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
77° 66°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
69° 62°
±9°
Wed
Cloudy
74° 59°
±9°
Thu
Cloudy
74° 58°
±9°
Fri
Cloudy
73° 60°
±7°
Sat
Cloudy
77° 61°
±14°
Sun
Cloudy
80° 60°
±17°
Mon
Light drizzle
74° 58°
±11°
Tue
Cloudy
70° 53°
±7°
Wed
Partly cloudy
72° 51°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
81° 57°
±6°

Chesterfield, Missouri (MO) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 27°F), with roughly 45 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Chesterfield right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Chesterfield climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
42°
27°
Feb
54°
33°
Mar
58°
38°
Apr
69°
48°
May
79°
58°
Jun
87°
66°
Jul
88°
69°
Aug
86°
68°
Sep
81°
62°
Oct
71°
51°
Nov
57°
41°
Dec
48°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Chesterfield?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±1.0 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F93±2.3 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°95° to 97°±26%11% to 37% chance
Tomorrow±4°95° to 99°±4%2% to 6% chance
Sun±4°90° to 95°±7%37% to 44% chance
Mon±1°76° to 77°±15%54% to 69% chance
Tue±9°64° to 73°±9%26% to 35% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Chesterfield

today, local time
Sunrise
06:46
Sunset
19:05
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Chesterfield today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Chesterfield today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Chesterfield today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Chesterfield and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Chesterfield?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Chesterfield (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Chesterfield?
July is typically the warmest month in Chesterfield, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Chesterfield get?
The coldest month in Chesterfield is January, when overnight lows average about 27°F.
How much rain does Chesterfield get?
Chesterfield sees roughly 45 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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