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CheckWeather USCommerce City
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 6°F

Commerce City weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Commerce City's high today between 81° and 86°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 76°, with a 100% chance of rain.

84°61°
76°57°
72°53°
75°55°
79°56°
77°57°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowsplit ±8°Sundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±10°Tuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
81°
Drizzle
Today 81°·Low 62°·Rain 41%
AmericanNOAA GFS
86°
Cloudy
Today 86°·Low 61°·Rain 41%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Light drizzle
Today 83°·Low 60°·Rain 67%
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Commerce City weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Commerce City weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Commerce City swings 75°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 13°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 20 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
13°F average low
Wettest month
May
20 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
April and October
Residents
54,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Commerce City and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Commerce City hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Commerce City 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
84° 61°
±6°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
76° 57°
±8°
Sun
Light drizzle
72° 53°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 55°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
79° 56°
±7°
Wed
Partly cloudy
77° 57°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
80° 58°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
81° 60°
±7°
Sat
Mostly clear
81° 62°
±10°
Sun
Mostly clear
81° 56°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
77° 55°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
81° 57°
±11°
Wed
Partly cloudy
85° 59°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
87° 61°
models agree

Commerce City, Colorado (CO) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 13°F), with roughly 20 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Commerce City right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Commerce City climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
34°
13°
Feb
44°
17°
Mar
50°
24°
Apr
62°
34°
May
70°
45°
Jun
82°
56°
Jul
88°
60°
Aug
88°
61°
Sep
83°
52°
Oct
69°
41°
Nov
50°
27°
Dec
47°
25°

Which forecast is most accurate in Commerce City?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
82
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F91±2.8 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
64
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F86±4.4 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°81° to 86°±26%41% to 67% chance
Tomorrow±8°73° to 81°±67%33% to 100% chance
Sun±6°69° to 75°±59%33% to 92% chance
Mon±10°70° to 80°±23%10% to 33% chance
Tue±7°77° to 84°±2%25% to 27% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Commerce City

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
19:03
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Commerce City today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Commerce City today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Commerce City today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Commerce City and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Commerce City?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Commerce City (CheckWeather Score 82/100), ahead of the American at 64. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Commerce City?
July is typically the warmest month in Commerce City, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Commerce City get?
The coldest month in Commerce City is January, when overnight lows average about 13°F.
How much rain does Commerce City get?
Commerce City sees roughly 20 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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