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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Dale City weather

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Light rain,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 86° in Dale City today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 79°, with a 5% chance of rain.

86°72°
79°65°
85°69°
72°63°
66°61°
62°58°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
85°
Light rain
Today 85°·Low 73°·Rain 14%
AmericanNOAA GFS
86°
Cloudy
Today 86°·Low 72°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
87°
Light drizzle
Today 87°·Low 71°·Rain 88%
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Dale City weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Dale City weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Dale City swings 56°F across the year, from 89°F highs in July to 33°F lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 44 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
89°F average high
Coldest month
January
33°F average low
Wettest month
December
44 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
April, May and October
Residents
66,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Dale City and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dale City hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Dale City 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
86° 72°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
79° 65°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
85° 69°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
72° 63°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
66° 61°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
62° 58°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
65° 58°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
71° 56°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
72° 54°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
73° 53°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 56°
models agree
Tue
Fog
78° 57°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
76° 62°
±8°
Thu
Clear
73° 54°
±7°

Dale City, Virginia (VA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 33°F), with roughly 44 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Dale City right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Dale City climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
48°
33°
Feb
53°
35°
Mar
58°
39°
Apr
70°
50°
May
75°
56°
Jun
85°
64°
Jul
89°
70°
Aug
87°
68°
Sep
80°
62°
Oct
70°
51°
Nov
59°
41°
Dec
49°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Dale City?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
84±1.6°F97±0.9 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
68
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F90±3.0 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°85° to 87°±74%14% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±2°79° to 81°±2%3% to 5% chance
Sun±4°83° to 87°±7%52% to 59% chance
Mon±4°70° to 73°±7%52% to 59% chance
Tue±2°65° to 67°±8%47% to 55% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dale City

today, local time
Sunrise
06:53
Sunset
19:12
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dale City today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Dale City today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Dale City today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Dale City and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dale City?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Dale City (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the American at 68. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Dale City?
July is typically the warmest month in Dale City, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Dale City get?
The coldest month in Dale City is January, when overnight lows average about 33°F.
How much rain does Dale City get?
Dale City sees roughly 44 in of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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