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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Duluth weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Duluth's high today between 58° and 63°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 62°, with a 10% chance of rain.

60°54°
62°55°
59°52°
58°49°
59°46°
60°45°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaysplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
59°
Light drizzle
Today 59°·Low 56°·Rain 13%
AmericanNOAA GFS
58°
Cloudy
Today 58°·Low 53°·Rain 13%
EuropeanECMWF
63°
Light drizzle
Today 63°·Low 53°·Rain 63%
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Duluth weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Duluth weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Duluth swings 64°F across the year, from 78°F highs in July to 14°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 32 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
78°F average high
Coldest month
January
14°F average low
Wettest month
June
32 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, July, August and September
Residents
86,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Duluth and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Duluth hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Duluth 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
60° 54°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
62° 55°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
59° 52°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
58° 49°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
59° 46°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
60° 45°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
64° 49°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
67° 51°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
65° 53°
±9°
Sun
Heavy drizzle
62° 54°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
56° 50°
±12°
Tue
Cloudy
55° 45°
±8°
Wed
Cloudy
62° 46°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
64° 47°
models agree

Duluth, Minnesota (MN) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 78°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 14°F), with roughly 32 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Duluth right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Duluth climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
25°
14°
Feb
32°
16°
Mar
36°
22°
Apr
47°
32°
May
62°
45°
Jun
72°
55°
Jul
78°
61°
Aug
76°
61°
Sep
73°
58°
Oct
57°
45°
Nov
41°
30°
Dec
32°
21°

Which forecast is most accurate in Duluth?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
71
/100rank #2
74±2.6°F91±2.7 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°58° to 63°±50%13% to 63% chance
Tomorrow±5°60° to 65°±4%6% to 10% chance
Sun±4°57° to 61°±8%2% to 10% chance
Mon±2°57° to 59°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±2°58° to 60°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Duluth

today, local time
Sunrise
06:50
Sunset
19:13
Daylight
12h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Duluth today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Duluth today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Duluth today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Duluth and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Duluth?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Duluth (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 71. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Duluth?
July is typically the warmest month in Duluth, with average highs around 78°F.
How cold does Duluth get?
The coldest month in Duluth is January, when overnight lows average about 14°F.
How much rain does Duluth get?
Duluth sees roughly 32 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

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