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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Fairfield weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 79° in Fairfield today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 67°, with a 0% chance of rain.

79°65°
67°55°
67°59°
67°57°
61°52°
64°51°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
78°
Heavy drizzle
Today 78°·Low 65°·Rain 21%
AmericanNOAA GFS
80°
Cloudy
Today 80°·Low 65°·Rain 21%
EuropeanECMWF
78°
Cloudy
Today 78°·Low 65°·Rain 43%
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Fairfield weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Fairfield…

Fairfield weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Fairfield swings 54°F across the year, from 82°F highs in July to 28°F lows in February, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 56 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
82°F average high
Coldest month
February
28°F average low
Wettest month
April
56 in a year
Below freezing
2 months
January and February
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
59,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Fairfield and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Fairfield hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Fairfield 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
79° 65°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
67° 55°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
67° 59°
±5°
Mon
Light rain
67° 57°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
61° 52°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
64° 51°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
62° 52°
±8°
Fri
Drizzle
62° 52°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
65° 54°
±13°
Sun
Partly cloudy
69° 54°
±10°
Mon
Partly cloudy
69° 56°
±9°
Tue
Light drizzle
71° 58°
models agree
Wed
Rain
76° 60°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
69° 54°
±5°

Fairfield, Connecticut (CT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 28°F), with roughly 56 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Fairfield right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Fairfield climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
43°
30°
Feb
43°
28°
Mar
50°
34°
Apr
58°
43°
May
68°
51°
Jun
77°
60°
Jul
82°
68°
Aug
79°
65°
Sep
74°
59°
Oct
66°
50°
Nov
54°
39°
Dec
44°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in Fairfield?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
79
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F93±2.1 mph5374% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
65
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F95±1.6 mph1855% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°78° to 80°±22%21% to 43% chance
Tomorrow±1°67° to 68°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±5°65° to 70°±9%88% to 97% chance
Mon±2°66° to 68°±1%78% to 79% chance
Tue±5°58° to 63°±18%4% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Fairfield

today, local time
Sunrise
06:36
Sunset
18:57
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Fairfield today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Fairfield today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Fairfield today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Fairfield and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Fairfield?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Fairfield (CheckWeather Score 79/100), ahead of the American at 65. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Fairfield?
July is typically the warmest month in Fairfield, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Fairfield get?
The coldest month in Fairfield is February, when overnight lows average about 28°F.
How much rain does Fairfield get?
Fairfield sees roughly 56 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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