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CheckWeather USFort Smith
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Fort Smith weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 99° in Fort Smith today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 98°, with a 0% chance of rain.

99°76°
98°75°
98°75°
91°73°
89°69°
89°64°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±12°Tuesdaysplit ±13°Wednesdaysplit ±13°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
100°
Clear
Today 100°·Low 78°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
100°
Mostly clear
Today 100°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
97°
Mostly clear
Today 97°·Low 76°·Rain 6%
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Fort Smith weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Fort Smith…

Fort Smith weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Fort Smith swings 62°F across the year, from 93°F highs in August to 31°F lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 51 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
93°F average high
Coldest month
January
31°F average low
Wettest month
March
51 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
January
Comfortable
4 months
February, April, October and November
Residents
88,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Fort Smith and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Fort Smith hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Fort Smith 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
99° 76°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
98° 75°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
98° 75°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
91° 73°
±12°
Tue
Mostly clear
89° 69°
±13°
Wed
Mostly clear
89° 64°
±13°
Thu
Mostly clear
88° 64°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
87° 67°
±8°
Sat
Partly cloudy
86° 65°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
89° 66°
±10°
Mon
Drizzle
83° 66°
±19°
Tue
Mostly clear
83° 58°
±6°
Wed
Partly cloudy
86° 56°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
88° 58°
models agree

Fort Smith, Arkansas (AR) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 93°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 31°F), with roughly 51 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Fort Smith right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Fort Smith climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
49°
31°
Feb
61°
39°
Mar
65°
44°
Apr
72°
52°
May
81°
62°
Jun
90°
69°
Jul
92°
73°
Aug
93°
73°
Sep
86°
66°
Oct
77°
56°
Nov
64°
45°
Dec
55°
38°

Which forecast is most accurate in Fort Smith?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
90±1.0°F97±1.1 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
71±2.9°F95±1.5 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°97° to 100°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tomorrow±4°96° to 100°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±6°95° to 101°±5%24% to 29% chance
Mon±12°85° to 97°±8%39% to 47% chance
Tue±13°82° to 95°±1%8% to 9% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Fort Smith

today, local time
Sunrise
07:02
Sunset
19:20
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Fort Smith today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Fort Smith today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Fort Smith today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Fort Smith and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Fort Smith?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Fort Smith (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Fort Smith?
August is typically the warmest month in Fort Smith, with average highs around 93°F.
How cold does Fort Smith get?
The coldest month in Fort Smith is January, when overnight lows average about 31°F.
How much rain does Fort Smith get?
Fort Smith sees roughly 51 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

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