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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Gilroy weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Gilroy today. Tomorrow looks fog around 82°, with a 0% chance of rain.

82°54°
82°56°
78°55°
76°55°
82°55°
96°57°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaysplit ±9°Mondaysplit ±8°Tuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaysplit ±4°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
83°
Mostly clear
Today 83°·Low 55°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
82°
Fog
Today 82°·Low 54°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
80°
Partly cloudy
Today 80°·Low 53°·Rain 0%
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Gilroy weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Gilroy and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Gilroy hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Gilroy 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
82° 54°
models agree
Tomorrow
Fog
82° 56°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
78° 55°
±9°
Mon
Cloudy
76° 55°
±8°
Tue
Partly cloudy
82° 55°
±9°
Wed
Mostly clear
96° 57°
±4°
Thu
Mostly clear
90° 62°
±11°
Fri
Cloudy
83° 59°
±14°
Sat
Cloudy
82° 59°
±19°
Sun
Cloudy
83° 57°
±11°
Mon
Mostly clear
86° 56°
±10°
Tue
Light drizzle
85° 58°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
79° 55°
±13°
Thu
Clear
78° 54°
models agree

Gilroy is a town of about 53,000 people in California (CA), sitting at 37.0°N in a temperate climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Gilroy with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include San Martin, Morgan Hill, Interlaken.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Which forecast is most accurate in Gilroy?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F98±0.7 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #2
39±6.1°F91±2.7 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°80° to 83°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±5°79° to 84°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±9°74° to 82°±1%1% to 2% chance
Mon±8°71° to 80°±1%1% to 2% chance
Tue±9°77° to 87°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Gilroy

today, local time
Sunrise
06:50
Sunset
19:08
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Gilroy today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Gilroy today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Gilroy today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Gilroy and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Gilroy?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Gilroy (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the American at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

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