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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Great Falls weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 75° in Great Falls today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 68°, with a 14% chance of rain.

75°51°
68°54°
73°46°
79°50°
80°52°
82°54°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
74°
Cloudy
Today 74°·Low 53°·Rain 5%
AmericanNOAA GFS
77°
Cloudy
Today 77°·Low 48°·Rain 5%
EuropeanECMWF
74°
Cloudy
Today 74°·Low 52°·Rain 4%
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Great Falls weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Great Falls weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Great Falls swings 66°F across the year, from 86°F highs in July to 20°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 16 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
86°F average high
Coldest month
January
20°F average low
Wettest month
May
16 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
3 months
June, September and October
Residents
60,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Great Falls and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Great Falls hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Great Falls 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
75° 51°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
68° 54°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
73° 46°
±6°
Mon
Clear
79° 50°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
80° 52°
±4°
Wed
Mostly clear
82° 54°
±7°
Thu
Mostly clear
83° 56°
±11°
Fri
Light drizzle
80° 54°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
64° 51°
±11°
Sun
Partly cloudy
62° 46°
±15°
Mon
Light drizzle
68° 49°
±24°
Tue
Cloudy
74° 50°
±15°
Wed
Cloudy
70° 54°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
56° 45°
models agree

Great Falls, Montana (MT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 86°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 20°F), with roughly 16 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Great Falls right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Great Falls climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
34°
20°
Feb
36°
21°
Mar
40°
22°
Apr
54°
34°
May
65°
45°
Jun
72°
51°
Jul
86°
60°
Aug
82°
58°
Sep
75°
53°
Oct
60°
40°
Nov
45°
30°
Dec
44°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Great Falls?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F96±1.1 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
75±2.5°F90±3.0 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°74° to 77°±1%4% to 5% chance
Tomorrow±5°67° to 71°models agree14% to 14% chance
Sun±6°70° to 75°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±6°76° to 82°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°78° to 82°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Great Falls

today, local time
Sunrise
07:06
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Great Falls today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Great Falls today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Great Falls today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Great Falls and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Great Falls?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Great Falls (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Great Falls?
July is typically the warmest month in Great Falls, with average highs around 86°F.
How cold does Great Falls get?
The coldest month in Great Falls is January, when overnight lows average about 20°F.
How much rain does Great Falls get?
Great Falls sees roughly 16 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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