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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Harlem weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Harlem today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 72°, with a 1% chance of rain.

82°70°
72°60°
70°62°
70°59°
63°56°
64°54°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
72°
Partly cloudy
Feels 70° · Wind 7 mph · Humidity 48%
AmericanNOAA GFS
73°
Overcast
Feels 72° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 45%
EuropeanECMWF
74°
Partly cloudy
Feels 75° · Wind 2 mph · Humidity 43%

Latest for Harlem: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 72° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 73° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 74° Partly cloudy.

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Harlem weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Harlem…

Harlem weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Harlem swings 57°F across the year, from 86°F highs in July to 29°F lows in February, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 55 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
86°F average high
Coldest month
February
29°F average low
Wettest month
March
55 in a year
Below freezing
2 months
January and February
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
116,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Harlem and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Harlem hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Harlem 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
82° 70°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
72° 60°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
70° 62°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
70° 59°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
63° 56°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
64° 54°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
62° 55°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
63° 55°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
70° 56°
±7°
Sun
Light drizzle
72° 58°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
73° 59°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
75° 61°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
80° 64°
models agree
Thu
Rain
70° 56°
±8°

Harlem, New York (NY) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 86°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 29°F), with roughly 55 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Harlem right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Harlem climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
44°
30°
Feb
45°
29°
Mar
51°
35°
Apr
62°
44°
May
71°
52°
Jun
81°
62°
Jul
86°
69°
Aug
82°
65°
Sep
76°
60°
Oct
68°
49°
Nov
55°
39°
Dec
45°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in Harlem?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F98±0.7 mph6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F92±2.7 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°81° to 83°±52%5% to 57% chance
Tomorrow±2°71° to 73°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±5°68° to 73°±9%83% to 92% chance
Mon±4°67° to 71°models agree74% to 74% chance
Tue±1°63° to 64°±16%8% to 24% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Harlem

today, local time
Sunrise
06:39
Sunset
18:59
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Harlem today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Harlem today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Harlem today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Harlem and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Harlem?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Harlem (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Harlem?
July is typically the warmest month in Harlem, with average highs around 86°F.
How cold does Harlem get?
The coldest month in Harlem is February, when overnight lows average about 29°F.
How much rain does Harlem get?
Harlem sees roughly 55 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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