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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Jacksonville weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 93° in Jacksonville today. Tomorrow looks heavy drizzle around 83°, with a 80% chance of rain.

93°68°
83°71°
86°69°
89°71°
82°71°
79°69°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±7°Sundaysplit ±10°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
93°
Showers
Today 93°·Low 70°·Rain 28%
AmericanNOAA GFS
92°
Cloudy
Today 92°·Low 66°·Rain 28%
EuropeanECMWF
93°
Drizzle
Today 93°·Low 67°·Rain 80%
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Jacksonville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Jacksonville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Jacksonville swings 48°F across the year, from 89°F highs in July to 41°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 55 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
89°F average high
Coldest month
January
41°F average low
Wettest month
August
55 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and October
Residents
67,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Jacksonville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Jacksonville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Jacksonville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
93° 68°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
83° 71°
±7°
Sun
Partly cloudy
86° 69°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
89° 71°
±5°
Tue
Showers
82° 71°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
79° 69°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
77° 67°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
78° 64°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
76° 63°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
77° 61°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
80° 61°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
78° 65°
±8°
Wed
Showers
85° 67°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
76° 67°
±5°

Jacksonville, North Carolina (NC) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 41°F), with roughly 55 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Jacksonville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Jacksonville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
59°
41°
Feb
62°
43°
Mar
67°
47°
Apr
74°
54°
May
79°
61°
Jun
86°
67°
Jul
89°
73°
Aug
87°
71°
Sep
82°
66°
Oct
74°
56°
Nov
66°
49°
Dec
59°
41°

Which forecast is most accurate in Jacksonville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
97±0.3°F98±0.6 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
58
/100rank #2
88±1.2°F93±2.2 mph045% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°92° to 93°±52%28% to 80% chance
Tomorrow±7°79° to 86°±43%37% to 80% chance
Sun±10°80° to 91°±5%22% to 27% chance
Mon±5°87° to 91°±37%43% to 80% chance
Tue±2°81° to 83°±21%61% to 82% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Jacksonville

today, local time
Sunrise
06:54
Sunset
19:12
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Jacksonville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Jacksonville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Jacksonville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Jacksonville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Jacksonville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Jacksonville (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 58. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Jacksonville?
July is typically the warmest month in Jacksonville, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Jacksonville get?
The coldest month in Jacksonville is January, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does Jacksonville get?
Jacksonville sees roughly 55 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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