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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Minneapolis (MPLS) weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 62° in Minneapolis today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 64°, with a 77% chance of rain.

62°59°
64°57°
69°53°
65°52°
65°49°
66°47°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±7°Sundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±7°Wednesdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
62°
Overcast
Feels 62° · Wind 9 mph · Humidity 98%
AmericanNOAA GFS
62°
Overcast
Feels 62° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 92%
EuropeanECMWF
62°
Light drizzle
Feels 61° · Wind 8 mph · Humidity 85%

Latest for Minneapolis: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 62° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 62° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 62° Light drizzle.

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Minneapolis weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Minneapolis weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Minneapolis swings 70°F across the year, from 83°F highs in July to 13°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 40 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
83°F average high
Coldest month
January
13°F average low
Wettest month
June
40 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
May and October
Residents
411,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Minneapolis and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Minneapolis in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Minneapolis, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

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Minneapolis hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Minneapolis 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
62° 59°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
64° 57°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
69° 53°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
65° 52°
±5°
Tue
Mostly clear
65° 49°
±7°
Wed
Cloudy
66° 47°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
69° 51°
±9°
Fri
Mostly clear
71° 52°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
70° 55°
±4°
Sun
Drizzle
65° 56°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
61° 53°
±13°
Tue
Partly cloudy
61° 48°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
64° 49°
±11°
Thu
Cloudy
72° 50°
±7°

Minneapolis, Minnesota (MN) (often shortened to MPLS, Twin Cities) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 83°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 13°F), with roughly 40 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Minneapolis right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Minneapolis climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
27°
13°
Feb
36°
15°
Mar
41°
21°
Apr
54°
35°
May
72°
50°
Jun
81°
60°
Jul
83°
62°
Aug
81°
62°
Sep
79°
59°
Oct
63°
45°
Nov
44°
31°
Dec
34°
22°

Which forecast is most accurate in Minneapolis?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
96±0.4°F98±0.6 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #2
90±1.0°F96±1.3 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°62° to 62°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±7°60° to 67°±54%23% to 77% chance
Sun±2°68° to 70°±2%1% to 3% chance
Mon±5°63° to 68°±1%3% to 4% chance
Tue±7°61° to 68°models agree3% to 3% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Minneapolis

today, local time
Sunrise
06:55
Sunset
19:17
Daylight
12h 22m

Common questions

What's the weather in Minneapolis today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Minneapolis today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Minneapolis today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Minneapolis and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Minneapolis?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Minneapolis (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 75. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Minneapolis?
July is typically the warmest month in Minneapolis, with average highs around 83°F.
How cold does Minneapolis get?
The coldest month in Minneapolis is January, when overnight lows average about 13°F.
How much rain does Minneapolis get?
Minneapolis sees roughly 40 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

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