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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Missoula weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 73° in Missoula today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 69°, with a 78% chance of rain.

73°51°
69°53°
75°49°
78°49°
78°51°
80°52°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
72°
Light rain
Today 72°·Low 51°·Rain 47%
AmericanNOAA GFS
76°
Light drizzle
Today 76°·Low 50°·Rain 47%
EuropeanECMWF
72°
Light drizzle
Today 72°·Low 52°·Rain 30%
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Missoula weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Missoula weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Missoula swings 75°F across the year, from 89°F highs in July to 14°F lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 17 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
89°F average high
Coldest month
January
14°F average low
Wettest month
September
17 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
3 months
May, June and October
Residents
71,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Missoula and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Missoula hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Missoula 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
73° 51°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
69° 53°
±5°
Sun
Mostly clear
75° 49°
models agree
Mon
Clear
78° 49°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
78° 51°
±4°
Wed
Mostly clear
80° 52°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
82° 53°
±9°
Fri
Partly cloudy
80° 53°
±7°
Sat
Partly cloudy
71° 51°
±10°
Sun
Mostly clear
65° 48°
±14°
Mon
Cloudy
66° 45°
±19°
Tue
Cloudy
74° 47°
±9°
Wed
Cloudy
71° 48°
±8°
Thu
Partly cloudy
56° 47°
models agree

Missoula, Montana (MT) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 14°F), with roughly 17 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Missoula right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Missoula climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
33°
14°
Feb
38°
20°
Mar
46°
26°
Apr
56°
33°
May
68°
43°
Jun
74°
49°
Jul
89°
57°
Aug
84°
55°
Sep
74°
48°
Oct
61°
38°
Nov
44°
29°
Dec
41°
27°

Which forecast is most accurate in Missoula?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F93±2.1 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
88
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F86±4.4 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°72° to 76°±17%30% to 47% chance
Tomorrow±5°66° to 72°±54%24% to 78% chance
Sun±3°74° to 77°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±4°76° to 80°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°76° to 80°±5%1% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Missoula

today, local time
Sunrise
07:17
Sunset
19:41
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Missoula today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Missoula today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Missoula today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Missoula and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Missoula?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Missoula (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Missoula?
July is typically the warmest month in Missoula, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Missoula get?
The coldest month in Missoula is January, when overnight lows average about 14°F.
How much rain does Missoula get?
Missoula sees roughly 17 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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