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CheckWeather USModesto
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Modesto weather

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Clear,warmer tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 85° in Modesto today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 90°, with a 0% chance of rain.

85°57°
90°59°
87°61°
89°60°
90°60°
97°63°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
85°
Clear
Today 85°·Low 58°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
84°
Mostly clear
Today 84°·Low 54°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
86°
Clear
Today 86°·Low 58°·Rain 0%
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Modesto weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Modesto…

Modesto weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Modesto swings 64°F across the year, from 104°F highs in July to 40°F lows in February, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 24 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
104°F average high
Coldest month
February
40°F average low
Wettest month
January
24 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
March, April and November
Residents
211,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Modesto and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Modesto hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Modesto 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
85° 57°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
90° 59°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
87° 61°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
89° 60°
±7°
Tue
Clear
90° 60°
±6°
Wed
Clear
97° 63°
±7°
Thu
Mostly clear
99° 68°
±4°
Fri
Mostly clear
92° 68°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
89° 65°
±14°
Sun
Clear
90° 63°
±16°
Mon
Mostly clear
90° 63°
±12°
Tue
Cloudy
93° 64°
±5°
Wed
Clear
87° 62°
±16°
Thu
Clear
85° 60°
±14°

Modesto, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 104°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 40°F), with roughly 24 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Modesto right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Modesto climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
56°
42°
Feb
58°
40°
Mar
61°
43°
Apr
71°
48°
May
81°
54°
Jun
92°
61°
Jul
104°
68°
Aug
99°
66°
Sep
91°
61°
Oct
83°
56°
Nov
65°
45°
Dec
59°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in Modesto?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±0.9 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
94
/100rank #2
90±1.0°F97±0.9 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°84° to 86°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°89° to 91°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±6°85° to 91°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±7°86° to 93°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tue±6°88° to 94°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Modesto

today, local time
Sunrise
06:48
Sunset
19:06
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Modesto today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Modesto today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Modesto today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Modesto and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Modesto?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Modesto (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 94. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Modesto?
July is typically the warmest month in Modesto, with average highs around 104°F.
How cold does Modesto get?
The coldest month in Modesto is February, when overnight lows average about 40°F.
How much rain does Modesto get?
Modesto sees roughly 24 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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