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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Moorhead weather

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Heavy drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 66° in Moorhead today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 70°, with a 3% chance of rain.

66°58°
70°57°
70°52°
68°49°
69°46°
68°50°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±5°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
65°
Heavy drizzle
Today 65°·Low 59°·Rain 37%
AmericanNOAA GFS
67°
Cloudy
Today 67°·Low 58°·Rain 37%
EuropeanECMWF
67°
Light drizzle
Today 67°·Low 58°·Rain 74%
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Moorhead weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Moorhead weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Moorhead swings 73°F across the year, from 82°F highs in July to 9°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 26 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
82°F average high
Coldest month
January
9°F average low
Wettest month
May
26 in a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
September and October
Residents
42,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Moorhead and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Moorhead hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Moorhead 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
66° 58°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
70° 57°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
70° 52°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
68° 49°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
69° 46°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
68° 50°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
71° 56°
±11°
Fri
Partly cloudy
75° 57°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
69° 57°
±7°
Sun
Light rain
63° 53°
±13°
Mon
Drizzle
60° 47°
±16°
Tue
Cloudy
60° 43°
±9°
Wed
Cloudy
67° 42°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
71° 50°
±5°

Moorhead, Minnesota (MN) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 9°F), with roughly 26 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Moorhead right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Moorhead climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
22°
Feb
33°
13°
Mar
35°
16°
Apr
50°
32°
May
71°
49°
Jun
80°
60°
Jul
82°
62°
Aug
80°
62°
Sep
77°
58°
Oct
60°
43°
Nov
41°
27°
Dec
31°
20°

Which forecast is most accurate in Moorhead?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F98±0.6 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F92±2.4 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°65° to 67°±37%37% to 74% chance
Tomorrow±5°68° to 73°±1%2% to 3% chance
Sun±3°68° to 72°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±2°67° to 69°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°67° to 70°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Moorhead

today, local time
Sunrise
07:08
Sunset
19:32
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Moorhead today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Moorhead today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Moorhead today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Moorhead and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Moorhead?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Moorhead (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Moorhead?
July is typically the warmest month in Moorhead, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Moorhead get?
The coldest month in Moorhead is January, when overnight lows average about 9°F.
How much rain does Moorhead get?
Moorhead sees roughly 26 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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