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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Phoenix weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 100° in Phoenix today. Tomorrow looks clear around 101°, with a 0% chance of rain.

100°79°
101°78°
100°77°
100°84°
99°83°
100°84°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
101°
Clear
Today 101°·Low 81°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
101°
Clear
Today 101°·Low 78°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
100°
Clear
Today 100°·Low 79°·Rain 2%
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Phoenix weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Phoenix…

Phoenix weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Phoenix swings 71°F across the year, from 111°F highs in July to 40°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 8 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
111°F average high
Coldest month
January
40°F average low
Wettest month
January
8 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, November and December
Residents
1.7 million
share this forecast

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Phoenix and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Phoenix in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Phoenix, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

What are you doing?

Where are you going?

Phoenix hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Phoenix 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
100° 79°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
101° 78°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
100° 77°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
100° 84°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
99° 83°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
100° 84°
±5°
Thu
Mostly clear
100° 85°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
99° 85°
±8°
Sat
Cloudy
100° 85°
±9°
Sun
Drizzle
103° 87°
±6°
Mon
Cloudy
103° 87°
±8°
Tue
Mostly clear
106° 89°
models agree
Wed
Clear
100° 86°
models agree
Thu
Clear
96° 81°
±13°

Phoenix, Arizona (AZ). Below we compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Phoenix right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Phoenix's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Phoenix weather by month

what to expect in Phoenix through the year

Here is Phoenix's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °F, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Phoenix by season.

Jan
62°
40°
Mild
Wettest
Feb
67°
44°
Mild
Mar
71°
48°
Mild
Apr
85°
57°
Hot
May
94°
68°
Hot
Jun
104°
77°
Hot
Jul
111°
87°
Hot
Aug
106°
84°
Hot
Sep
102°
76°
Hot
Oct
93°
65°
Hot
Nov
75°
50°
Warm
Dec
70°
45°
Mild

What Phoenix's weather is like through the year

Phoenix runs from warm summers, with July highs near 111°F, to cold winters, when January lows sit around 40°F (a swing of about 71°F across the year). January is usually the wettest month, and Phoenix sees roughly 8 inches of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Phoenix

The most comfortable time to visit Phoenix is usually February, March, November and December, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 60-78°F range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Phoenix?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F96±1.3 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F91±2.9 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Phoenix, scoring 94/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 73. See the full US accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°100° to 101°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±2°100° to 102°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±2°99° to 101°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±2°99° to 101°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±1°98° to 100°±3%4% to 7% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Phoenix

today, local time
Sunrise
06:13
Sunset
18:30
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Phoenix today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Phoenix today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Phoenix today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Phoenix and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Phoenix?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Phoenix (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 73. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Phoenix?
July is typically the warmest month in Phoenix, with average highs around 111°F.
How cold does Phoenix get?
The coldest month in Phoenix is January, when overnight lows average about 40°F.
How much rain does Phoenix get?
Phoenix sees roughly 8 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Phoenix?
The most comfortable time to visit Phoenix is usually February, March, November and December, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 60-78°F range and the heaviest January rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Phoenix?
Rarely - Phoenix very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

More US weather