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CheckWeather USPoinciana
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Poinciana weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Poinciana's high today between 84° and 89°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 87°, with a 100% chance of rain.

86°74°
87°73°
86°73°
87°73°
87°73°
87°74°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±9°Wednesdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
86°
Drizzle
Today 86°·Low 74°·Rain 38%
AmericanNOAA GFS
89°
Cloudy
Today 89°·Low 75°·Rain 38%
EuropeanECMWF
84°
Showers
Today 84°·Low 73°·Rain 94%
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Poinciana weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Poinciana…

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Poinciana and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Poinciana hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Poinciana 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
86° 74°
±5°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
87° 73°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
86° 73°
models agree
Mon
Showers
87° 73°
models agree
Tue
Showers
87° 73°
±9°
Wed
Showers
87° 74°
±7°
Thu
Light drizzle
87° 74°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
87° 74°
±6°
Sat
Drizzle
87° 73°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
86° 72°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
86° 72°
±7°
Tue
Thunderstorm
87° 72°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
83° 72°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
76° 72°
models agree

Poinciana is a town of about 53,000 people in Florida (FL), sitting at 28.1°N in a subtropical climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Poinciana with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Haines City, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Which forecast is most accurate in Poinciana?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F95±1.6 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
55
/100rank #2
72±2.8°F87±4.1 mph1352% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°84° to 89°±56%38% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±2°86° to 87°±74%26% to 100% chance
Sun±2°85° to 87°±20%76% to 96% chance
Mon±4°86° to 90°±10%86% to 96% chance
Tue±9°84° to 93°±11%75% to 86% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Poinciana

today, local time
Sunrise
07:12
Sunset
19:26
Daylight
12h 14m

Common questions

What's the weather in Poinciana today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Poinciana today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Poinciana today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Poinciana and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Poinciana?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Poinciana (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the American at 55. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.

Nearby

More US weather