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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Rochester weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 68° in Rochester today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 64°, with a 14% chance of rain.

68°60°
64°52°
63°56°
59°55°
60°52°
61°50°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
69°
Cloudy
Today 69°·Low 59°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
68°
Cloudy
Today 68°·Low 59°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
66°
Cloudy
Today 66°·Low 61°·Rain 37%
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Rochester weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Rochester weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Rochester swings 56°F across the year, from 81°F highs in July to 25°F lows in February, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 43 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
81°F average high
Coldest month
February
25°F average low
Wettest month
August
43 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
210,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Rochester and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Rochester hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Rochester 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
68° 60°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
64° 52°
models agree
Sun
Rain
63° 56°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
59° 55°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
60° 52°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
61° 50°
±6°
Thu
Cloudy
64° 51°
±8°
Fri
Cloudy
65° 53°
±5°
Sat
Cloudy
66° 51°
±6°
Sun
Mostly clear
69° 54°
±10°
Mon
Partly cloudy
72° 55°
±12°
Tue
Cloudy
74° 58°
±10°
Wed
Light rain
67° 54°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
64° 53°
±11°

Rochester, New York (NY) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 25°F), with roughly 43 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Rochester right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Rochester climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
36°
27°
Feb
41°
25°
Mar
44°
30°
Apr
57°
39°
May
67°
49°
Jun
75°
59°
Jul
81°
64°
Aug
77°
62°
Sep
74°
58°
Oct
62°
48°
Nov
49°
37°
Dec
40°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Rochester?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F97±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F95±1.5 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°66° to 69°±36%1% to 37% chance
Tomorrow±3°62° to 65°±9%5% to 14% chance
Sun±3°62° to 65°±24%62% to 86% chance
Mon±2°58° to 60°±3%1% to 4% chance
Tue±2°59° to 61°±2%6% to 8% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Rochester

today, local time
Sunrise
06:53
Sunset
19:14
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Rochester today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Rochester today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Rochester today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Rochester and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Rochester?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Rochester (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 72. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Rochester?
July is typically the warmest month in Rochester, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Rochester get?
The coldest month in Rochester is February, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Rochester get?
Rochester sees roughly 43 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

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