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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

San Marcos weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 95° in San Marcos today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 95°, with a 10% chance of rain.

95°74°
95°74°
96°73°
98°76°
97°76°
96°75°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
96°
Cloudy
Today 96°·Low 75°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Cloudy
Today 96°·Low 74°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
93°
Cloudy
Today 93°·Low 73°·Rain 10%
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San Marcos weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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San Marcos weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

San Marcos swings 57°F across the year, from 100°F highs in August to 43°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 45 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
100°F average high
Coldest month
January
43°F average low
Wettest month
May
45 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
61,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around San Marcos and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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San Marcos hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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San Marcos 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
95° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
95° 74°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
96° 73°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
98° 76°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
97° 76°
±6°
Wed
Mostly clear
96° 75°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
95° 75°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
95° 73°
±9°
Sat
Mostly clear
94° 72°
±8°
Sun
Mostly clear
95° 72°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
92° 73°
±6°
Tue
Light drizzle
93° 72°
±8°
Wed
Clear
92° 67°
±8°
Thu
Clear
91° 64°
±9°

San Marcos, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 100°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 43°F), with roughly 45 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for San Marcos right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

San Marcos climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
62°
43°
Feb
68°
49°
Mar
75°
56°
Apr
78°
60°
May
85°
68°
Jun
93°
74°
Jul
95°
75°
Aug
100°
77°
Sep
92°
73°
Oct
85°
65°
Nov
72°
54°
Dec
67°
49°

Which forecast is most accurate in San Marcos?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F93±2.1 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #2
73±2.7°F92±2.4 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°93° to 96°±6%4% to 10% chance
Tomorrow±3°94° to 97°±10%0% to 10% chance
Sun±2°96° to 97°±2%1% to 3% chance
Mon±3°97° to 100°±16%9% to 25% chance
Tue±6°95° to 101°±31%12% to 43% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in San Marcos

today, local time
Sunrise
07:18
Sunset
19:33
Daylight
12h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in San Marcos today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for San Marcos today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in San Marcos today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for San Marcos and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for San Marcos?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for San Marcos (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in San Marcos?
August is typically the warmest month in San Marcos, with average highs around 100°F.
How cold does San Marcos get?
The coldest month in San Marcos is January, when overnight lows average about 43°F.
How much rain does San Marcos get?
San Marcos sees roughly 45 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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