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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Severn weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 82° in Severn today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 77°, with a 6% chance of rain.

82°70°
77°61°
83°67°
72°62°
65°59°
63°57°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
83°
Light drizzle
Today 83°·Low 70°·Rain 10%
AmericanNOAA GFS
81°
Cloudy
Today 81°·Low 69°·Rain 10%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Light rain
Today 83°·Low 71°·Rain 84%
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Severn weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Severn weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Severn swings 56°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 32°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 51 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
32°F average low
Wettest month
July
51 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
44,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Severn and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Severn hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Severn 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
82° 70°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
77° 61°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
83° 67°
±6°
Mon
Drizzle
72° 62°
±4°
Tue
Heavy drizzle
65° 59°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
63° 57°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
65° 57°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
71° 56°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
72° 55°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
73° 56°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
74° 58°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
78° 60°
models agree
Wed
Rain
75° 64°
models agree
Thu
Clear
72° 56°
±7°

Severn, Maryland (MD) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 51 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Severn right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Severn climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
47°
32°
Feb
51°
33°
Mar
56°
38°
Apr
68°
48°
May
73°
54°
Jun
83°
63°
Jul
88°
70°
Aug
85°
67°
Sep
78°
62°
Oct
69°
50°
Nov
58°
41°
Dec
48°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Severn?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
87±1.3°F97±0.9 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
66
/100rank #2
80±2.0°F95±1.6 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°81° to 83°±74%10% to 84% chance
Tomorrow±2°76° to 77°±6%0% to 6% chance
Sun±6°80° to 86°±21%54% to 75% chance
Mon±4°71° to 75°±14%54% to 68% chance
Tue±3°63° to 66°±6%41% to 47% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Severn

today, local time
Sunrise
06:50
Sunset
19:10
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Severn today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Severn today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Severn today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Severn and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Severn?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Severn (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 66. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Severn?
July is typically the warmest month in Severn, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Severn get?
The coldest month in Severn is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Severn get?
Severn sees roughly 51 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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