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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Toledo weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 73° in Toledo today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 68°, with a 88% chance of rain.

73°60°
68°62°
69°61°
64°58°
62°55°
60°58°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
71°
Light drizzle
Today 71°·Low 61°·Rain 10%
AmericanNOAA GFS
75°
Cloudy
Today 75°·Low 59°·Rain 10%
EuropeanECMWF
72°
Cloudy
Today 72°·Low 62°·Rain 13%
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Toledo weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Toledo weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Toledo swings 59°F across the year, from 84°F highs in July to 25°F lows in January, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 36 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
84°F average high
Coldest month
January
25°F average low
Wettest month
April
36 in a year
Below freezing
2 months
January and February
Comfortable
3 months
May, September and October
Residents
266,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Toledo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Toledo hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Toledo 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
73° 60°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
68° 62°
models agree
Sun
Rain
69° 61°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
64° 58°
±7°
Tue
Light drizzle
62° 55°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
60° 58°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
62° 57°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
66° 57°
±7°
Sat
Mostly clear
67° 53°
±7°
Sun
Mostly clear
70° 53°
±10°
Mon
Cloudy
72° 54°
±13°
Tue
Showers
67° 53°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
60° 50°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
66° 49°
±7°

Toledo, Ohio (OH) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 25°F), with roughly 36 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Toledo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Toledo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
37°
25°
Feb
45°
27°
Mar
49°
32°
Apr
61°
42°
May
72°
52°
Jun
81°
62°
Jul
84°
65°
Aug
81°
63°
Sep
76°
59°
Oct
65°
48°
Nov
52°
38°
Dec
43°
32°

Which forecast is most accurate in Toledo?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
79±2.1°F98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
58
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F94±1.7 mph548% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°71° to 75°±3%10% to 13% chance
Tomorrow±4°66° to 69°±41%47% to 88% chance
Sun±4°67° to 71°±1%88% to 89% chance
Mon±7°61° to 68°±4%24% to 28% chance
Tue±3°60° to 63°±14%27% to 41% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Toledo

today, local time
Sunrise
07:17
Sunset
19:38
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Toledo today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Toledo today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Toledo today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Toledo and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Toledo?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Toledo (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the American at 58. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Toledo?
July is typically the warmest month in Toledo, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Toledo get?
The coldest month in Toledo is January, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Toledo get?
Toledo sees roughly 36 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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