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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°F

Topeka weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 94° in Topeka today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 95°, with a 80% chance of rain.

94°74°
95°73°
77°68°
69°63°
71°58°
71°54°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
94°
Clear
Feels 99° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 44%
AmericanNOAA GFS
95°
Clear
Feels 97° · Wind 12 mph · Humidity 37%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Clear
Feels 97° · Wind 10 mph · Humidity 38%

Latest for Topeka: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 94° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 95° Clear · European (ECMWF): 94° Clear.

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Topeka weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Topeka weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Topeka swings 67°F across the year, from 89°F highs in July to 22°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 37 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
89°F average high
Coldest month
January
22°F average low
Wettest month
May
37 in a year
Below freezing
3 months
January, February and December
Comfortable
2 months
April and October
Residents
126,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Topeka and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Topeka hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Topeka 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
94° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
95° 73°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
77° 68°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
69° 63°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
71° 58°
±8°
Wed
Cloudy
71° 54°
±6°
Thu
Light drizzle
69° 58°
±12°
Fri
Heavy drizzle
70° 60°
±11°
Sat
Light drizzle
76° 59°
±9°
Sun
Light rain
79° 63°
±12°
Mon
Light rain
73° 59°
±19°
Tue
Mostly clear
72° 53°
±9°
Wed
Cloudy
76° 53°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
85° 62°
±4°

Topeka, Kansas (KS) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 89°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 22°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Topeka right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Topeka climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
38°
22°
Feb
52°
29°
Mar
57°
36°
Apr
70°
47°
May
79°
57°
Jun
87°
67°
Jul
89°
70°
Aug
89°
70°
Sep
84°
63°
Oct
72°
52°
Nov
55°
39°
Dec
46°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Topeka?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
98
/100rank #1
97±0.3°F97±0.8 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F95±1.6 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree94° to 94°±15%1% to 16% chance
Tomorrow±2°94° to 96°±37%43% to 80% chance
Sun±1°76° to 77°±47%53% to 100% chance
Mon±1°69° to 70°±3%47% to 50% chance
Tue±8°67° to 75°±1%2% to 3% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Topeka

today, local time
Sunrise
07:06
Sunset
19:26
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Topeka today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Topeka today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Topeka today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Topeka and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Topeka?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Topeka (CheckWeather Score 98/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Topeka?
July is typically the warmest month in Topeka, with average highs around 89°F.
How cold does Topeka get?
The coldest month in Topeka is January, when overnight lows average about 22°F.
How much rain does Topeka get?
Topeka sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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